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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 121612 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1112 AM CDT WED MAR 12 2014 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... ...MID ATLANTIC REGION... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH TRACKING RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE OH VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED 100+ KT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 987 MB LOW NEAR PIT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AN INTENSE PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET WILL ACCOMPANY THE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES WV INTO VA/PA. RADAR SHOWS THE LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO PRODUCE SPORADIC WIND DAMAGE. PLEASE SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 178 FOR FURTHER SHORT-TERM DETAILS. BY MID AFTERNOON...THE CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND BEGIN AFFECTING PARTS OF VA/SOUTHERN PA/NORTHERN NC. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES OF ONLY 100-500 J/KG OVER THE REGION. THIS MAKES THE OCCURRENCE OF LIGHTNING WITH THE CONVECTION UNCERTAIN. NEVERTHELESS...STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COUPLED WITH SOME STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO DIURNAL AND DOWNSLOPE WARMING MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES THAT DEVELOP. THE THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT TRACKS EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NJ/MD AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. ..HART/DIAL.. 03/12/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z |