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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 150559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2014 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... ALTHOUGH ITS AMPLITUDE LIKELY WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PROGRESSING THROUGH ITS CREST...ACROSS AND TO THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...A LARGE UPPER RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE BUILDING ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...NOW DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MORE SHARPLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ROCKIES...TOWARD THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPMENT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TURNING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...APPEARS LIKELY PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE OZARK PLATEAU BY 12Z SUNDAY. DOWNSTREAM...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST...BUT A DEEP CYCLONIC VORTEX PROGRESSING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA MAY MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE ON WEATHER EAST OF THE ROCKIES. COLDEST NEAR-SURFACE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN CANADIAN VORTEX WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...BUT THE SHALLOW SOUTHERN LEADING EDGE OF THIS AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES AND PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU BY EARLY SUNDAY. COLDER AIR ALSO APPEAR LIKELY TO SURGE SOUTHWARD TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...THROUGH MUCH OF THE PLAINS...DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A LINGERING LOW/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRIOR COLD INTRUSION MAY TIGHTEN SOME ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS. MEANWHILE...A MODEST RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE IS NOW UNDERWAY OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH FURTHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...MORE SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY REACH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT...WHERE/WHEN MODELS SUGGEST SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARK PLATEAU REGION. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LEAD SHORT WAVE...ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TODAY...BEFORE SUBSTANTIVE BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY...A ZONE OF DIFFERENTIAL SURFACE HEATING MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ROUGHLY ALONG AN AXIS SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...COUPLED WITH INSOLATION...IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR A 50-60+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR SUPERCELLS. AND THIS MAY BE REALIZED...AS A CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION TOWARD THE 15/21-16/00Z TIME FRAME. ...UPPER TEXAS COAST INTO LWR MS VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST... ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIVE INLAND MOISTURE SURGE INTO A DEVELOPING ZONE OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION... ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE ON THE PRIMARY FRONT TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES...AND AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..KERR/LEITMAN.. 03/15/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |