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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 220100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2014 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...DISCUSSION... QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION -- AND TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS -- TO REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURES WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WHILE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SRN LOWER MI VICINITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THIS REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OK AND ADJACENT NWRN AR INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD INTO/ACROSS AR OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER SW ALONG THE FRONT INTO SRN OK/N TX. WITH EVENING RAOBS AND AREA VAD WIND PROFILES REVEALING 40 TO 50 KT WLYS AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED CELLS. HOWEVER...MODEST CAPE /AOB 500 J/KG/ AND A COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER DARK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MINIMAL SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE AN ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF UPDRAFT INTENSITY. ..GOSS.. 03/22/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |
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