Mar 22, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | |||||||||
Updated: Sat Mar 22 19:53:38 UTC 2014 ( | ) | |||||||||
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table |
Categorical Graphic | |||||||||
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Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 221950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...E CNTRL TX... SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR WACO TX WHERE HOLES IN THE CIRRUS REVEAL A DEEPENING CU FIELD. THIS AREA OF RELATIVE HEATING EXTENDS UPSTREAM SEWD TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA. AS GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION PERSISTS...CONVERGENCE ON THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. LONG HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL. ...SERN OK INTO THE ARKLATEX... SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS PERSIST IN THIS AREA...FED BY MODEST THETA-E ADVECTION ATOP THE SURFACE STABLE LAYER. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 202. ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014/ ...CENTRAL/SE TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD FROM CENTRAL/N TX THIS MORNING TO S CENTRAL/SE TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY SUBTLE SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT ARE EMBEDDED IN THE SRN STREAM WHICH WILL REMAIN FROM THE US/MEXICO BORDER EWD TO THE GULF COAST STATES. THUS...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD WILL BE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IN TX. THE LOW LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AND NEAR 70 F ALONG THE MIDDLE/LOWER TX COAST. WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AS WELL AS HIGH CLOUDS WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING...WITH ONLY SMALL CLOUD BREAKS NOTED JUST W OF COLLEGE STATION. 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WARM INTO THE 80S TO REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STILL...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ANY CLOUD BREAKS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE AUSTIN-WACO-COLLEGE STATION AREA. IF STORMS FORM...THE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT WOULD SUPPORT A RISK FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...SE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD TO JUST OFF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. IN THE INTERIM...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE SE FL COAST. FARTHER N...THE NRN EXTENT OF A MOISTURE SURGE WILL BRUSH THE GA/SC/SRN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |