Mar 22, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 22 19:53:38 UTC 2014 (20140322 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140322 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140322 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140322 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140322 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140322 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 221950

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014

   VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...E CNTRL TX...
   SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS STALLED NEAR WACO TX WHERE HOLES IN THE CIRRUS
   REVEAL A DEEPENING CU FIELD. THIS AREA OF RELATIVE HEATING EXTENDS
   UPSTREAM SEWD TOWARD THE HOUSTON AREA. AS GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION
   PERSISTS...CONVERGENCE ON THIS BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WOULD THEN MOVE ESEWD
   ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. LONG HODOGRAPHS WOULD FAVOR A FEW LONG-LIVED
   CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL. 

   ...SERN OK INTO THE ARKLATEX...
   SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS PERSIST IN THIS AREA...FED BY MODEST
   THETA-E ADVECTION ATOP THE SURFACE STABLE LAYER. FOR MORE
   INFORMATION...SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 202.

   ..JEWELL.. 03/22/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2014/

   ...CENTRAL/SE TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
   A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SEWD FROM CENTRAL/N TX
   THIS MORNING TO S CENTRAL/SE TEXAS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  ONLY
   SUBTLE SPEED MAXIMA ALOFT ARE EMBEDDED IN THE SRN STREAM WHICH WILL
   REMAIN FROM THE US/MEXICO BORDER EWD TO THE GULF COAST STATES. 
   THUS...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD
   WILL BE LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IN TX.

   THE LOW LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL TX...AND NEAR 70 F ALONG
   THE MIDDLE/LOWER TX COAST.  WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AS WELL AS HIGH
   CLOUDS WILL SLOW SURFACE HEATING...WITH ONLY SMALL CLOUD BREAKS
   NOTED JUST W OF COLLEGE STATION.  12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THAT
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WARM INTO THE 80S TO REMOVE
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  STILL...THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH ANY CLOUD
   BREAKS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE AUSTIN-WACO-COLLEGE
   STATION AREA.  IF STORMS FORM...THE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR
   1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 50 KT WOULD SUPPORT A RISK
   FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL.

   ...SE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...
   A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT EWD TO JUST OFF THE FL ATLANTIC
   COAST IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.  IN THE INTERIM...ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE SE FL
   COAST.  FARTHER N...THE NRN EXTENT OF A MOISTURE SURGE WILL BRUSH
   THE GA/SC/SRN NC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK
   FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z