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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 230540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2014 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD OVER THE U.S. IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...AS BROAD TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW EXPANDS OVER THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY AND UPSTREAM RIDGING SHIFTS ONSHORE OVER THE WRN STATES LATER IN THE PERIOD. AS THE UPPER FLOW TAKES ON A MORE CYCLONIC CHARACTER E OF THE ROCKIES...A COLD SURFACE HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD/ESEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...A COLD FRONT -- INITIALLY EXTENDING WSWWD FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO COASTAL TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD -- WILL SHIFT STEADILY SWD WITH TIME. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE CLEARED THE U.S. -- WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF FAR S FL AND THE KEYS. PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS COASTAL PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL AND INTO SRN GA/N FL. THOUGH ANY WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION SHOULD REMAIN INSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK...AN ENHANCED WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT -- GIVEN FAVORABLY STRONG/UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT RESIDING ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE FARTHER W INTO TX...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST WITHIN AN ANAFRONTAL-TYPE REGIME. HOWEVER...DESPITE AMPLE FLOW ALOFT...DEGREE OF ELEVATED CAPE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK OF ANY HAIL REACHING SEVERE LEVELS. ..GOSS.. 03/23/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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