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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 250621 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER TROUGH -- AND SURROUNDING CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ENCOMPASSING THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY EWD WITH TIME...ADVANCING TOWARD/INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN IS FORECAST...AS A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW SHIFT INTO THE WRN U.S. -- AND AID IN BREAKING DOWN THE UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT THE WRN RIDGE...SHIFTING EWD FROM NRN BAJA CA TO NM/FAR W TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...THREE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. IN THE WEST...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PAC NW AND VICINITY...AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGHING SHIFTS INLAND. SPORADIC LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN A MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS UPSLOPE-FAVORED AREAS. TO THE S...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF AZ AND NM THROUGH THE DAY...AND LATER INTO THE WRN HALF OF TX OVERNIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WEAKENING UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE DESERT SW AND ADJACENT NWRN MEXICO. FINALLY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS S FL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS A LINGERING SURFACE FRONT FINALLY SWEEPS SWD/OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. ..GOSS.. 03/25/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |
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