Mar 27, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 27 16:35:36 UTC 2014 (20140327 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140327 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140327 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140327 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140327 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140327 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 112,450 9,413,575 Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...Kansas City, KS...
   SPC AC 271607

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   ISSUED BY 15TH OWS SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE IL
   1107 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

   VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PARTS OF KS AND OK INTO MID
   MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS
   THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD. WITHIN THIS REGIME...A POLAR-BRANCH
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL
   TRANSLATE FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ENEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
   OH VALLEY BY 28/12Z. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ATTENDED BY A BROAD 50-60+
   KT SWLY LLJ WHICH WILL CORRESPONDINGLY MIGRATE FROM LOWER ELEVATIONS
   OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND OZARKS TO UPPER OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S. BY
   THE END OF THE PERIOD.

   AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER N-CNTRL KS WILL UNDERGO GRADUAL
   WEAKENING WHILE DEVELOPING NEWD TO ERN IA BY 28/00Z...PRIOR TO
   REACHING NRN LOWER MI BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. A DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD
   FROM THIS LOW WILL MIX EWD INTO ERN PARTS OF KS/OK BY AFTERNOON
   WHILE BEING GRADUALLY OVERTAKEN FROM THE N BY A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
   SEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN PLAINS. THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE
   DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF TX BEFORE STALLING IN
   RESPONSE TO CYCLOGENESIS OVER N-CNTRL TX TONIGHT.

   ...ERN PARTS OF KS/OK INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND OZARK PLATEAU THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

   THE POLEWARD FLUX OF HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY
   ALONG THE ABOVE-MENTIONED LLJ AXIS WITH WARM SECTOR DEWPOINTS RISING
   INTO THE 50S OVER ERN KS/WRN MO...AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
   PARTS OF ERN OK AND AR. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE SURMOUNTED BY
   A WELL-DEFINED EML WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 500-1200
   J/KG WITHIN THE NWD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.

   CLEARING SKIES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS ALLOWING FOR FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION IN LOW LEVEL...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME FROM THE
   VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN IA OR NWRN MO SWWD ALONG THE
   COLD FRONT-DRYLINE OCCLUSION INTO ERN KS AND SW MO. THIS COUPLED
   WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW THE LINEAR NATURE OF LOW-LEVEL
   FORCING MECHANISM AND ITS ALIGNMENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR
   WOULD INDICATE THAT STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR A
   CONTINUOUS BAND WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
   HAZARDS. AS THESE STORMS SPREAD EWD/SEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND
   OZARK PLATEAU OVERNIGHT...EXPECT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH OWING TO THE COOLING AND RESULTANT STABILIZATION
   OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

   DIURNAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO ERN OK/WRN AR
   REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR THE HEIGHT
   FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH TO
   SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING. AS
   SUCH...INITIATION WILL BE HEAVILY RELIANT ON BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
   ALONG AND WEST OF THE DRYLINE. SHOULD SURFACE-BASED STORMS FORM AND
   BECOME SUSTAINED...THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...50-60
   KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE DRYLINE AND MODERATELY
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

   ...ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   TONIGHT...

   BOTH CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND PARAMETRIZED MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE AN
   INCREASE IN TSTMS TODAY WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR FROM ERN TX INTO
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY. HERE...LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW WILL BE
   AUGMENTED BY A DEEPER CIRCULATION TIED TO THE COUPLING OF POLAR AND
   SUB-TROPICAL-BRANCH JET STREAKS. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
   UNDERGO CONTINUED WARMING AND MOISTENING THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
   DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...A CONSIDERABLE CAP AT THE BASE OF AN EML
   /REFERENCE 12Z SOUNDINGS/ CASTS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER ANY OF
   THESE STORMS WILL TRULY BECOME SURFACE BASED. AS SUCH...THE EXISTING
   LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST.

   ..15_OWS.. 03/27/2014

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