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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 051936 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT SAT APR 05 2014 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE. ..BROYLES.. 04/05/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2014/ ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD. THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WITHIN THIS REGIME IS A SRN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE LOWER CO VALLEY/BAJA/GULF OF CA REGION TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/NWRN MEXICO BY 06/12Z. AT THE SURFACE...THE EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL INDUCE LEE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN NM LATER TODAY...ALONG A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS SECONDARY CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER DEEP S TX/LOWER TX COAST EARLY SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE...THE ERN EXTENSION OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM E-CNTRL NC SWWD THROUGH THE FL PNHDL TO THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY SWD WHILE THE WRN PORTION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT MENTIONED ABOVE. ...SERN TX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY... THE DYNAMIC RESPONSE TO THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IN TURN WILL PROMOTE THE POLEWARD TRANSPORT OF HEAT AND MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THESE PROCESSES WILL FOSTER AN INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSTMS ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF STRONGER CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML BEING ADVECTED OFF THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND RELATIVELY STRONG CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR. ...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST... TSTMS ONGOING OVER THE SHELF WATERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP ONSHORE TODAY AS THE ENVIRONMENT DESTABILIZES INVOF THE SYNOPTIC FRONT. TONIGHT...ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ARE ENHANCED ABOVE THE SURFACE FRONT. WEAK LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT VIGOR AND POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ...ERN NM/WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH WHERE STEEP LOW TO MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 250 J/KG. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY OWING TO THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND RESULTANT POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |
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