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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 101225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT THU APR 10 2014 VALID 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LOW AMPLITUDE...TWO-STREAM CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL THIS PERIOD....S OF BROAD HUDSON BAY UPR LOW. SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER WRN ONT AND THE UPR MS VLY WILL CONTINUE E INTO QUE LATER TODAY/TNGT...WHILE SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES FARTHER SW PROGRESS ESE INTO THE MID-MS VLY BY THIS EVE...AND ACROSS THE UPR OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS EARLY FRI. DRY AIR OVER MOST OF THE NATION AT LWR LVLS WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION. ...MID MS/LWR OH VLYS THIS AFTN/EVE... WEAK DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SRN SD/NEB WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY ESE TODAY...WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING MID/UPR-LVL FLOW OVERSPREADING THE MID-MS AND LWR OH VLYS. AT THE SAME TIME...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO STRONGER ONT TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SE INTO THE LWR OH VLY/NRN OZARKS BY EVE. COMBINATION OF FRONTAL UPLIFT WITH SFC HEATING AND MODEST ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING PROVIDED BY UPR IMPULSE SHOULD FOSTER SCTD LATE DAY CONVECTION/STORMS FROM SRN MO ENE INTO IL/IND. WHILE MOISTURE/CAPE WILL REMAIN LIMITED...STEEP LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AMIDST MODERATE /40 KT/ WSWLY DEEP SHEAR MAY YIELD A FEW UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/GUSTY SFC WINDS. THIS THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY TNGT...ALTHOUGH STORMS MAY LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRI OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY. ...CO FRONT RANGE/CNTRL HIGH PLNS THIS AFTN/EVE... WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS TODAY IN WAKE OF SAME COLD FRONT AFFECTING THE MS/OH VLYS. THIS FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LVL MOISTURE TO THE CO/WY FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLNS. COUPLED WITH SFC HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE SKIRTING THE SRN FRINGE OF THE NRN STREAM JET...SETUP COULD YIELD ISOLD LATE-DAY STORMS IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE...SPARSE MOISTURE /PW BELOW .50 INCH/ AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY APPRECIABLE SVR THREAT. ..CORFIDI/BOTHWELL.. 04/10/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |
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