May 7, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 7 16:11:36 UTC 2014 (20140507 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140507 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140507 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140507 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140507 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140507 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 309,208 15,131,508 Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Minneapolis, MN...Wichita, KS...St. Paul, MN...
   SPC AC 071608

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1108 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2014

   VALID 071630Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS INTO TX....

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...AND OVER SOME
   OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY AND
   TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT
   LAKES REGION.

   ...WI/LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON...
   HAVE ADDED PORTIONS OF WI AND LOWER MI TO SLIGHT RISK AREA...WHERE
   STORMS HAVE FORMED AND ARE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.  IT REMAINS
   UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE
   INTENSITY...BUT IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL
   COULD EXTEND INTO WESTERN LOWER MI.  PLEASE REFER TO MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION NUMBER 507 FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

   ...NEB/CO...
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL
   KS...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO CO. 
   NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE TRANSPORTING
   SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR INTO NORTHEAST CO AND THE NEB
   PANHANDLE...WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50S ARE NOTED.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF
   STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY A WEAK CAP...WITH MODELS
   SHOWING CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND 21Z.  STORMS SHOULD FORM FIRST
   ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CENTRAL CO...AND ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
   BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEB.  SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE
   EVENING.

   ...KS/OK/TX...
   A SURFACE DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME WELL-DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON FROM
   CENTRAL KS...ACROSS WESTERN OK...INTO WEST TX.  FULL SUNSHINE WILL
   HELP TO DEEPEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND WEAKEN THE CAP BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.  MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AZ WILL
   ROTATE NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA.  INCREASED LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   ALONG THE DRYLINE BETWEEN 21-00Z.  MODEL SOLUTIONS STRONGLY SUGGEST
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS.  SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
   BE PRESENT BEFORE NOCTURNAL COOLING DECOUPLES THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   AFTER DARK.  ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA.

   ...MN/WI...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER
   PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT
   INCREASE.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

   ..HART/MOSIER.. 05/07/2014

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