May 14, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 14 12:46:39 UTC 2014 (20140514 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140514 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140514 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140514 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140514 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140514 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 261,825 40,443,467 Columbus, OH...Nashville, TN...Louisville, KY...Atlanta, GA...Cleveland, OH...
   SPC AC 141243

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

   VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN
   VLYS NNE INTO THE UPR OH VLY AND ERN GRT LKS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE...AND OHIO VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
   TONIGHT. DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER...A FEW
   TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM PARTS OF TENNESSEE
   AND KENTUCKY INTO FAR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...MUCH OF OHIO...AND WESTERN
   PENNSYLVANIA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFIED RIDGE-TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS
   THROUGH THU. CNTRL STATES TROUGH WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT EWD PROGRESS
   THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM IS REINFORCED BY NRN STREAM IMPULSE
   NOW ENTERING NRN MN...AND SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER N TX
   ACCELERATES NNE INTO IL.

   AT THE SFC...APPROACH OF TX IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE INDUCING WEAK
   CYCLOGENESIS ATTM ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER CNTRL MS. THE LOW SHOULD
   DEEPEN AND ACCELERATE NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY AND
   TNGT...REACHING NW OH BY 12Z THU. ELSEWHERE...WEAK BACK-DOOR
   BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QSTNRY FROM CNTRL VA/WRN MD NWD INTO W CNTRL
   PA/WRN NY.
    
   ...LWR MS/TN VLYS NNE INTO OH VLY/ERN GRT LKS TODAY/TNGT...
   SFC HEATING AND STRENGTHENING ASCENT/LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE DOWNSTREAM
   FROM TX UPR IMPULSE SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE
   OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS TODAY. STORMS ALSO SHOULD FORM
   BY EARLY TO MID-AFTN IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING...TERRAIN
   CIRCULATIONS...AND UPLIFT ALONG BACK-DOOR FRONT NEWD INTO THE UPR OH
   VLY/LWR GRT LKS.

   MID-LVL LAPSE RATES THROUGHOUT THE REGION WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN
   MERIDIONAL NATURE OF UPR PATTERN. BUT WITH FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE IN
   PLACE /PW AOA 1.50 INCHES...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE
   SOUTH/...SUSTAINED CONFLUENT FLOW ULTIMATELY SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS
   BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS.
     
   ENHANCED LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SFC
   WAVE...AND NEAR BACK-DOOR BOUNDARY FARTHER N...MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT
   TO YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO
   SMALL-SCALE BOWS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THE
   STRONGEST UPDRAFTS SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT. BUT
   CONTINUED DEEPENING OF SFC WAVE AND STRENGTHENING OF WIND PROFILES
   /WITH 700 MB SSW FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 50 KTS/ SUGGEST THAT SOME
   RISK FOR EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS/ISOLD TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE INTO
   TNGT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE KY NNEWD INTO OH AND PERHAPS FAR SE IND. 

   ELSEWHERE...CONFLUENCE WELL AHEAD OF EJECTING UPR IMPULSE AND
   COMPARATIVELY STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES /GREATER SFC HEATING/ MAY
   SUPPORT SCTD...MAINLY PULSE SVR STORMS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG
   WIND AND HAIL OVER PARTS OF GA...AND OVER WV/VA.

   ..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/14/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z