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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 171250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND GEORGIA. ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TODAY BE CHARACTERIZED BY ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE DEEP MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATE EWD AND NEWD...WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE PAC COAST. AT THE SURFACE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL SURGE WILL STALL JUST N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR FROM NE TX TO MS/AL. A SLOW INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE S WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN A BAND IMMEDIATELY N OF THE SURFACE FRONT BY EARLY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN A NW-SE ZONE FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS ERN CO AND SW MT...THOUGH WEAK BUOYANCY SUGGESTS ANY RISK OF HAIL/WIND WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL. LIKEWISE...THE RISK FOR STRONG ELEVATED STORMS JUST N OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WILL BE LIMITED BY MARGINAL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY. ..THOMPSON/BOTHWELL.. 05/17/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z |
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