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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 191944 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0244 PM CDT MON MAY 19 2014 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... HIGHLY ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO NEBRASKA INTO THE EVENING. ...WY/NEB/CO... PROFILER/VWP DATA STILL SAMPLE A PREDOMINANCE OF NLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS E OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR...WITH THE BULK OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /CONSISTING OF SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 55 DEG F/ STILL LYING FROM CNTRL NEB EWD. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER TO ELY INTO THE EVENING...THEY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK. INITIAL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS TO SERN WY. CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE IS QUITE INSISTENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY INTENSIFY WITH ERN EXTENT INTO NEB. BUT GIVEN THE DISPLACEMENT OF RICHER MOISTURE ATTM FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ANTICIPATED WEAK ADVECTION...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN BOTH DEVELOPING AND SUSTAINING MULTIPLE SUPERCELLS AMIDST LARGER-SCALE HEIGHT RISES AND INCREASINGLY STRONGER MLCIN WITH ERN EXTENT. ..GRAMS.. 05/19/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2014/ ...WY/NEB/CO... WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHWEST WY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WY TODAY...PROVIDING WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THE BROADER RIDGE IS SLOWLY BUILDING OVER THE PLAINS. THE RESULT IS NEUTRAL OR SLOWLY RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER WY/NEB/CO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SUGGESTING A RATHER ISOLATED CONVECTIVE EVENT OVER THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTHEAST WY BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS LINGER IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RATHER STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR /OVER 50 KNOTS/ AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE VALUES WILL RANGE FROM AOB 500 J/KG IN WY TO OVER 1500 J/KG IN PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL NEB. THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR RATHER HIGH-BASED ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS AND TRACK ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER 03Z. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z |
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