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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 230542 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2014 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF SRN NC INTO SC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF SERN NM AND FAR WEST TX... CORRECTED FOR FORECASTER NAME ...SUMMARY... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER ERN MONTANA. ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD. THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST...BECOMING CENTERED OVER ERN AZ BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL ADVANCE SEWD AND EXIT THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONTAL SURGE THAT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND WWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THEN NWWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ...SERN NC INTO CNTRL/ERN SC.... STRONG DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST WARM SECTOR AND EWD-ADVECTING PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM SRN NC INTO SC WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES AND THE CAP WEAKENS...A FEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONES AS WELL AS SEWD-ADVANCING FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITHIN NRN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR AS A MID-LEVEL JET ROTATES SEWD ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE RESULTING UNIDIRECTIONAL 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND SOME STORM SPLITS/LEFT MOVERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AS THEY CONTINUE SEWD DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...FAR WEST TX INTO SERN NM... PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH WRN TX. THIS WILL ALLOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER WEST ACROSS FAR WESTERN TX AND EASTERN NM WHERE SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST...0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD APPROACH 35-40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ANOTHER MORE CONCENTRATED ROUND OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY EVENING OVER SRN NM IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. VERTICAL SHEAR AT THIS TIME SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED STRUCTURES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS BEFORE ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATES INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...ERN MT... A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND HIGH PLAINS OF MT IN ASSOCIATION WITH PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING NWD ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITHIN A WEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE HIGH-BASED MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNBURSTS AS WELL AS SOME HAIL. ..DIAL/ROGERS.. 05/23/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z |