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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 290048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014 VALID 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO THE LATE EVENING. ...CNTRL/ERN MT INTO WRN ND... A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING BOWING SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS HAS DEVELOPED OVER N-CNTRL MT. THIS ACTIVITY HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF GROWING LOCALLY UPSCALE IN CHOUTEAU COUNTY...PERHAPS LINKING WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING FARTHER S INTO JUDITH BASIN COUNTY. THE 00Z GGW SOUNDING SAMPLES RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- E.G. LOWEST-100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIO AROUND 12 G/KG -- SUPPORTING MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE INFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SELYS. WITH DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX GLANCING THE REGION...SUSTAINED FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH SVR WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ENEWD/NEWD INTO NERN MT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT...WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. WHILE A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THIS RISK WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE MORE LINEAR/OUTFLOW-DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE AIDED BY HIGH LCL/S AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO WRN ND THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT WILL WEAKEN AS NOCTURNAL INHIBITION GROWS. ELSEWHERE...ONGOING STRONG STORMS IN ERN MT MAY POSE A LOCAL SVR RISK IN THE SHORT-TERM BUT ARE DOWNSTREAM OF STRONGER DEEP SHEAR. IN THE WAKE OF ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AFFECTS THE AREA...THOUGH NOCTURNAL INHIBITION SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR RISK. PLEASE SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 751 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. ..COHEN.. 05/29/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |