SPC AC 291627

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

   VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE WRN
   DAKOTAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
   POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
   AND THE CAROLINAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SRN AR CUT-OFF LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY THROUGH FRI WHILE THE
   NRN STREAM REMAINS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW...THE NRN PLNS
   AND THE NORTHEAST. ELONGATED LOW NOW OVER THE CANADIAN RCKYS
   EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER NRN SK BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS JET
   STREAK NOW OVER WRN MT SWEEPS NNE ACROSS SE AB AND SRN SK. AT THE
   SAME TIME...DOWNSTREAM JET STREAK NOW S OF JAMES BAY WILL AMPLIFY
   EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE LWR GRT LKS/NORTHEAST.

   COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH SHOULD PROGRESS E/SE INTO THE
   WRN DAKOTAS LATER TODAY...BEFORE DECELERATING AND WEAKENING OVER ERN
   ND/CNTRL SD/WRN NEB EARLY FRI. FARTHER E...SHALLOW BACK-DOOR FRONT
   WILL SETTLE SW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND SW VA...WHILE A SUBTLE WIND
   SHIFT IN SE QUADRANT OF AR UPR LOW ARCS SLOWLY E ACROSS ERN AR/MS. 

   ...WY NNE INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTN/EVE...
   TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITH AFTN HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT AND LEE TROUGH
   OVER CNTRL/ERN WY AND SE MT...WITH THE ACTIVITY TRACKING NEWD IN SW
   FLOW ON SRN FRINGE OF MT SPEED MAX. STORMS ALSO SHOULD FORM A BIT
   LATER ALONG THE SAME FRONT OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS...AND NEAR THE BLACK
   HILLS.

   HIGH-BASED ACTIVITY IN WY MAY ONCE AGAIN POSE A RISK FOR LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND...WHILE AMPLE MOISTURE /PW AOA 1 INCH/ WILL REMAIN IN
   PLACE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST STORMS /ML CAPE AROUND 2000 J PER KG/
   IN THE WRN DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DEEP SSWLY SHEAR
   ASSOCIATED WITH MT SPEED MAX WILL REMAIN POST-FRONTAL...30-40 KT
   700-500 MB FLOW LIKELY TO BE PRESENT OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE. AND...WHILE SHEAR
   ORIENTATION RELATIVE TO THE LOW-LVL FORCING SHOULD ENCOURAGE FAIRLY
   QUICK EVOLUTION INTO BROKEN LINES...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL
   EXIST FOR A FEW DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS POSING A RISK
   FOR SVR HAIL...WIND...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. WHILE THE STORMS MAY
   MERGE INTO A SIZABLE MCS...THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
   NIGHTFALL.

   ...LWR MS VLY/CNTRL GULF CST...
   BANDS/CLUSTERS OF DIURNALLY-ENHANCED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
   IN SE QUADRANT OF AR UPR LOW THROUGH FRI...WHERE VERY MOIST /PW AOA
   1.75 INCHES/...20-30 KT LOW-LVL SSELY FLOW WILL PERSIST BENEATH SLY
   FLOW OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE AT 700 MB. WHILE MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL
   REMAIN WEAK...SATELLITE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MODEST SFC
   HEATING IN MID-LVL DRY SLOT EXTENDING NNEWD FROM SE LA INTO MS. WITH
   HEATING LIKELY TO BOOST MLCAPE TO BETWEEN 500 AND 1500 J/KG...SETUP
   MAY YIELD TRANSIENT LOW-LVL CIRCULATIONS IN ANY STRONGER/MORE
   SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. THESE COULD YIELD A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO OR TWO.
   IN ADDITION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS
   IN AREAS OF ENHANCED PRECIP-LOADING.  

   ...SRN APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS...
   SCTD DIURNAL STORMS IN CORRIDOR OF SFC HEATING S AND W OF
   DECELERATING BACK-DOOR FRONT MAY YIELD A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY
   DMGG WIND...ALTHOUGH THE RISK SEEMS DIMINISHED EVEN RELATIVE TO
   YESTERDAY.

   ..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 05/29/2014

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