Jun 5, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 5 12:56:39 UTC 2014 (20140605 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140605 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140605 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140605 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140605 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140605 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MODERATE 43,240 2,627,299 Springfield, MO...Jonesboro, AR...Joplin, MO...Pittsburg, KS...Mountain Home, AR...
SLIGHT 241,976 17,039,167 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Colorado Springs, CO...
   SPC AC 051253

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0753 AM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

   VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
   FAR SERN KS...FAR NERN OK...SRN MO...NRN AR AND WRN TN...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO
   MID SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
   POSSIBLE TODAY FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
   SOUTHERN PARTS OF MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO WESTERN
   TENNESSEE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A QUASI-ZONAL MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL
   CONUS TO THE N OF AN ELONGATED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NWRN MEXICO
   INTO TX. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A MULTI-STREAM
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...AND MID SOUTH. FARTHER W...A NUMBER
   OF LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE WRN STATES
   TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS.

   AT THE SURFACE...A MIGRATORY LOW JUST OFF THE NJ COAST WILL DEVELOP
   NEWD WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SETTLES SWD THROUGH THE MID
   ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL
   REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE TN VALLEY TO LOW PRESSURE OVER NRN
   OK...THOUGH SOME FLUCTUATION OF ITS POSITION WILL OCCUR DUE TO
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING TSTMS. ELSEWHERE...A
   TROUGH WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN MN BEFORE
   STALLING. UPSTREAM...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD FROM THE CANADIAN
   PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO THE NRN PLAINS.

   ...OZARK PLATEAU TO MID SOUTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...

   AN INTENSE MCS COMPRISED OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES IS IN
   PROGRESS AS OF 12Z OVER ERN KS WITH AN OBSERVED SYSTEM MOTION OF
   290/45 KT. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THIS MCS IS SITUATED ON
   THE NERN FRINGE OF A STRONG CAP SITUATED AT THE BASE OF THE EML
   WHICH WILL LIMIT A SWWD EXPANSION OF STORMS TODAY. LATEST
   CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
   SUGGESTING THAT THIS BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS SRN MO/NRN
   AR INTO WRN TN/NRN MS ALONG THE STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. GIVEN THE
   WELL-ESTABLISHED COLD POOL...40-50+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND
   THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF A VERY MOIST AND MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS...EXPECT WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE
   ALONG THE MCS TRACK. LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
   POSSIBLE.  

   FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 833.

   ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF KS/OK THIS
   AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

   THE MAINTENANCE OF AN ELY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME AND THE
   POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF RIDGE-CRESTING VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE EXPECTED
   TO FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CO
   FRONT RANGE...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS THE RATON MESA. SIMILAR TO
   WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...STORMS WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD INTO A
   PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPE WILL
   APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS
   VEERING TO WLY AT 40-50 KT IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE...THE SETUP WILL
   FAVOR SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   AMALGAMATING STORM-SCALE OUTFLOWS MAY PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH OF
   STORMS INTO AN EWD/SEWD-MOVING MCS TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

   ADDITIONAL TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   KS/OK ALONG THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW-SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF
   THIS MORNINGS MCS. THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS APPEAR TO BE WEAK
   WAA...CONVERGENCE INVOF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT...AND
   STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING OVER WRN OK. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP AND
   BECOME SUSTAINED...THE OVERLAP OF A MODERATE-STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS /MLCAPE OF 2000-3000 J PER KG/ AND 50-60+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR WILL BE QUITE SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO
   REMAINS HIGH...THEREFORE BASELINE-SLIGHT-RISK PROBABILITIES WILL BE
   MAINTAINED.  

   ...ERN CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...

   SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR ALONG
   DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE FRONTS...A LEE TROUGH...AS WELL AS THE
   SWD-MOVING SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. THE PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST AND
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/ WILL
   PROMOTE VIGOROUS UP/DOWNDRAFTS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND PERHAPS HAIL. MARGINAL VERTICAL SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO
   LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
   WEATHER EVENT.  

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO MID MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   RESIDUAL BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S COUPLED
   WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE AFTERNOON
   INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
   STRONGER HEATING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AND WHILE THE PRIMARY
   ZONE OF FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF
   THE SURFACE TROUGH BY AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG
   THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN THE CO-LOCATION OF A MODESTLY SHEARED KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT...THE SETUP MAY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..MEAD/ROGERS.. 06/05/2014

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