Jun 6, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jun 6 01:04:45 UTC 2014 (20140606 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140606 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Tennessee Valley to Northwest Georgia late this afternoon and into the evening....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Graphic
20140606 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140606 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140606 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140606 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 176,607 12,634,332 Oklahoma City, OK...Atlanta, GA...Tulsa, OK...Augusta, GA...Amarillo, TX...
   SPC AC 060101

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0801 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

   VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
   OZARK PLATEAU...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS GA INTO WRN SC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL SHOULD
   DEVELOP INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO
   OZARK PLATEAU. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.

   ...SRN HIGH PLAINS TO OZARK PLATEAU...
   ISOLATED DISCRETE STORMS FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE TO THE RATON MESA
   WILL POSE A CONTINUED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS
   THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD FORM
   ALONG AND N OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS TO SERN KS AS NOCTURNAL LIFT INCREASES N OF THE STOUT
   CAPPING INVERSION SAMPLED BY 00Z OUN RAOB. 

   THIS SETUP SHOULD YIELD MERGING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND UPSCALE
   GROWTH INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   PANHANDLES TO THE OZARK PLATEAU. HOWEVER...OVERALL MCS INTENSITY
   WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO LAST NIGHTS MCS IN CO
   TO KS. THIS SHOULD BE DUE TO LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS N OF
   THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT COMPARED TO LAST EVENING /LIKELY DUE TO
   PREVIOUS NIGHT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL ELYS
   SHOULD REMAIN MORE MODEST TONIGHT WITH A LOW-LEVEL SLY JET CONFINED
   TO W TX. STILL...WITH A LARGE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...RISKS FOR SEVERE WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY
   PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

   ...SOUTHEAST...
   REMNANT OF THE LONG-LIVED MCS THAT BEGAN IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   LAST NIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS MAINLY GA THIS
   EVENING. OVERALL INTENSITY SHOULD WANE WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
   COOLING AND GIVEN AMBIENT WEAK SHEAR AS SAMPLED BY 00Z FFC RAOB
   /EFFECTIVE AROUND 15 KT/ AND MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6
   DEG C/KM. UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WILL REMAIN PROBABLE.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/06/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z