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| Probabilistic Tornado Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. |
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| Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic | |||||||||
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| Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point. |
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SPC AC 100042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2014 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER EASTERN MS...WRN AL...AND MIDDLE TN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING FROM MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN ALABAMA AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE. OTHER ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...THE CAROLINAS...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN MONTANA. ...MS INTO AL AND TN... A LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EWD ACROSS MS...WITH 42 KT WINDS MEASURED AT TUPELO. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A WIND THREAT INTO WRN AL AND MIDDLE TN. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT. SEVERAL CORES APPEAR TO CONTAIN HAIL WITHIN THIS LINE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 932. ...CENTRAL SC INTO NC... CELL DRIVEN MAINLY BY DAYTIME HEATING PERSIST FROM CNTRL SC INTO CNTRL NC. WHILE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS LIKELY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DWINDLE WITH THE COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 931 ...CNTRL AND SRN TX... A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE FINALLY FORMING ACROSS CNTRL TX...NEAR THE WASHED OUT FRONT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY WIND IF STORMS CAN EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT...ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL OR WIND IS NOW ANTICIPATED. ...FAR NERN MT... A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GLANCE NRN MT THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATE STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING ESEWD NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE CELLS MAY CONTAIN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS EVENING. ..JEWELL.. 06/10/2014 CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z |