Jun 12, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 12 12:45:44 UTC 2014 (20140612 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140612 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140612 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 194,187 16,429,398 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140612 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 63,955 9,472,865 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
2 % 73,934 3,831,850 Austin, TX...Sherman, TX...Huntsville, TX...Pflugerville, TX...Ardmore, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140612 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 61,940 9,407,506 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
15 % 133,457 7,080,346 Austin, TX...Sherman, TX...Huntsville, TX...Little Rock, AR...Jackson, MS...
5 % 644,482 56,106,425 San Antonio, TX...Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140612 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 61,356 9,384,699 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
30 % 62,721 9,420,581 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
15 % 108,842 5,822,894 Austin, TX...Sherman, TX...Huntsville, TX...Little Rock, AR...Jacksonville, AR...
5 % 524,594 26,751,327 San Antonio, TX...Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...New Orleans, LA...
   SPC AC 121242

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0742 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

   VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX/OK INTO THE
   ARKLATEX REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH
   MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND EAST INTO THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
   MAIN THREATS...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.  ADDITIONAL MORE
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
   AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS AFFECTED MUCH OF OK
   AND NORTH TX OVERNIGHT.  THIS CONVECTION IS SLOWLY WEAKENING...BUT
   AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
   SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE MCS THROUGH THE MORNING.  ISOLATED HAIL
   AND/OR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW THIS MORNING CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE SLIGHT
   RISK AREA TODAY...BUT IT STILL REMAINS LIKELY THAT PARTS OF CENTRAL
   TX WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE/SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY.  OVERNIGHT MODEL
   SOLUTIONS SEEM TO SHOW A CONSENSUS THAT STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG
   A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM ADM-MWL-JCT BY LATE
   AFTERNOON...SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. 
   AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD MLCAPE
   VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR
   SUPERCELL STORMS.  VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN
   RISK...ALTHOUGH HP SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE
   RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF CONCERNS REGARDING THE
   MORNING CONVECTION ARE REDUCED AND THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK BECOMES
   MORE APPARENT.

   ..HART/MOSIER.. 06/12/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z