Omaha, NE...Fort Dodge, IA...Dodge City, KS...Sioux Falls, SD...Watertown, SD...
2 %
100,674
5,158,719
Kansas City, KS...Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Lubbock, TX...Cedar Falls, IA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Denver, CO...Kansas City, KS...Kansas City, MO...Aurora, CO...Saint Paul, MN...
SPC AC 140600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT JUN 14 2014
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN KS...CNTRL AND ERN NEB
INTO WRN IA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SRN...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
...SUMMARY...
VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND WESTERN IOWA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR OVER
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...AND THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SRN MINNESOTA.
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL MOVE
EAST WITHIN A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME...REACHING THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN BASE OF THIS UPPER
LOW WILL EMERGE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
OR SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN FROM WRN TX THROUGH WRN KS TO
THE SOUTH OF A LEE LOW. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE SWD
THROUGH THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH THE
DRYLINE ACROSS SWRN NEB OR NWRN KS.
...SERN SD...SWRN MN...CNTRL AND ERN NEB...WRN AND CNTRL KS THROUGH
WRN IA...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS IN THIS REGION
INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGING AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT RICHER MOISTURE NOW OVER THE
SRN PLAINS NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR INTO SATURDAY WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S OVER ERN KS AND NEB.
MEANWHILE...PLUME OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES /8.5 C/KM/ WILL SPREAD
EWD ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS CONTRIBUTING TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE TO 4000 J/KG. A CAPPING INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
AIR AT BASE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE
BASED DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION MUCH OF THE DAY. INITIAL STORMS
WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE
FROM WRN KS INTO SWRN NEB. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE
SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT-DRYLINE MERGER FROM
SCNTRL THROUGH CNTRL NEB. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS A MID-LEVEL
JET ROTATES THROUGH BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPROACHING 35-40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL WITH INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST DURING THE DAY RESULTING
IN RELATIVELY SMALL HODOGRAPHS WHERE INITIATION OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A SMALL WINDOW MAY EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN NEB
WHERE THE LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN WITHIN MOIST AXIS AND BEFORE STORMS
GROW UPSCALE. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER WRN KS
WITH STORMS INITIATING ALONG THE DRYLINE.
EVENTUALLY STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS FROM NRN KS INTO
ERN NEB WITHIN ZONE OF INTENSE FORCING ALONG FRONT AND ON NOSE OF
STRENGTHENING LLJ. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
WIND AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH ERN NEB AND IA.
...WRN KS THROUGH WRN OK AND WRN TX...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONGLY UNSTABLE IN THIS
REGION AS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES OVERSPREAD MOIST AXIS. WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
WITHIN ZONE OF DEEP MIXING ALONG THE DRYLINE. WIND PROFILES WILL
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM
40-45 KT LIKELY. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN KS.
...NERN CO....
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITHIN
EVOLVING POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SUPPORTED BY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL
ARE LIKELY. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AS THEY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING.
..DIAL/SMITH.. 06/14/2014
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