SPC AC 152002

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
   MIDWEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
   THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM WISCONSIN...ILLINOIS...AND WESTERN
   INDIANA THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND
   SOUTHERN KANSAS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE STORMS.

   PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK IS TO NUDGE THE CATEGORICAL
   SLIGHT RISK/ASSOCIATED PROBABILITIES SOUTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHWESTERN OK. ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SEVERE PROBS OVER
   CENTRAL MO.

   LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ACROSS
   CENTRAL OK WHERE MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS MINIMAL CINH. ALTHOUGH
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS RATHER WEAK...INTERSECTION OF REMNANT OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY WITH WEAKENING SYNOPTIC FRONT MAY BE A PREFERRED AREA FOR
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
   EVENING. STRONG SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND 30 TO 35 KTS OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE
   WIND AND HAIL. 

   TRIMMED PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MO
   WHERE SURFACE WINDS HAVE VEERED TO WESTERLY AND CINH HAS INCREASED
   WITHIN A MINIMALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.

   ..BUNTING.. 06/15/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   BROAD TROUGHING WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WRN U.S. TO N-CNTRL STATES
   WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN THE E. WITHIN THIS LARGE-SCALE REGIME...A
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO LOWER MO VALLEY WILL
   PIVOT NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE
   TRACKS FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS BY 16/12Z.

   AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE ND-MN
   RED RIVER VALLEY TO E-CNTRL MN WILL UNDERGO OCCLUSION WHILE
   DEVELOPING NWD INTO WRN ONTARIO. AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE
   NWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF A COLD
   FRONT EDGING EWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE TRAILING EXTENSION
   OF THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM ERN KS TO WRN TX WILL BECOME MORE
   DIFFUSE WHILE DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
   AS A WARM FRONT...IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER ERN CO.

   ...UPPER MIDWEST/OH VALLEY INTO MID MS VALLEY THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM
   THE MORE MOIST...UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR TODAY...CASTING UNCERTAINTY ON
   THE DEGREE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
   MOREOVER...A CONVECTIVE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYED
   NOCTURNAL MCS IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AS OF MID
   MORNING...AND EFFECTIVELY NARROWING THE AXIS OF RICHER
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RETURNING NWD THROUGH REGION...ALONG AND TO
   THE S OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT.

   CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
   FROM CNTRL IL TO SERN MO SHOULD INTENSIFY WHILE MOVING EWD TODAY
   WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FORMING IN THE WAKE OF THE INITIAL ACTIVITY
   ALONG THE SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM CNTRL/ERN WI INTO PARTS OF MO. THE
   STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
   SEVERE HAIL INTO THIS EVENING.

   ...SWRN MO INTO THE SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

   THE SRN EXTENSION OF A NOCTURNAL MCS REMAINS IN PROGRESS AS OF MID
   MORNING OVER NRN/WRN PARTS OF AR INTO ERN OK WHILE A TRAILING
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS REINFORCED THE SYNOPTIC FRONT OVER NRN INTO WRN
   OK. THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING SAMPLED A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E.
   LOWEST-100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIO OF 15 G PER KG/ SURMOUNTED BY A
   700-500-MB LAPSE RATE OF 9 C/KM WHICH WILL YIELD A STRONGLY UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE OF 3000+ J/KG.

   GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR MIDLEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND THE WEAKENING
   SYNOPTIC FRONT...SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION AND SUSTENANCE
   REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. LATEST MODEL
   GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOST PROBABLE LOCATION FOR LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER PARTS
   OF WRN/SWRN TX. OTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT /LIKELY SLIGHTLY ELEVATED/
   WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER ABOUT 16/03Z OVER PARTS OF OK INTO SWRN MO
   ALONG THE ERN FRINGE OF THE NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ. LARGE
   HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   HAZARDS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS ROOTED
   IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS EVENING OVER OK INTO SRN KS.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...

   ELEVATED TSTM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF NEB WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED THETA-E ADVECTION OCCURRING ALONG A
   NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING LLJ. THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
   RATES AND AMPLE CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR WILL BE  SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

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