SPC AC 191628

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CDT THU JUN 19 2014

   VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MN INTO NERN KS AND
   NRN MO...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN TX AND FAR ERN MN...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
   SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW
   DAMAGING GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL...WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY FROM
   SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS IOWA...SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST
   MISSOURI...TO NORTHEAST KANSAS.  A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
   STATES AND WESTERN TEXAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER FAR SWRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL SLOWLY
   TRACK EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PIVOTS NEWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NRN MN INTO
   SERN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO. ELSEWHERE...A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO OFF THE
   MID ATLANTIC COAST IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING SEWD
   THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM N-CNTRL ND THROUGH THE
   MID MO VALLEY INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS MAY SLOWLY SHIFT EWD TODAY BEFORE
   STALLING. THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN
   TO MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD TOWARD THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ERN END OF THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SWD
   THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS A COLD FRONT.

   ...SRN MN INTO NERN KS/NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF EARLY-DAY STORMS COUPLED WITH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL YIELD
   MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000-2000
   J/KG. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
   AUGMENTED BY THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE DAKOTAS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   TO YIELD A BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS. WHILE STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DISPLACED TO
   THE NW OF THE AREA...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A RIBBON OF 50-60
   KT SSWLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL OVERLIE THE SURFACE
   FRONT...POTENTIALLY AIDING IN UPDRAFT VENTILATION/INTENSITY.
   FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT A VEER-BACK PATTERN WHICH MAY FOSTER A
   MIXTURE OF STORM MODES WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME 
   HAIL.

   ...FAR ERN NM/WRN TX THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM THE VICINITY
   OF THE DECELERATING COLD FRONT OVER THE TX PNHDL SWD ALONG THE
   DRYLINE NEAR THE TX-NM BORDER. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER
   THAN THAT OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY...THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL PROMOTE STRONG
   UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ...CNTRL/SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   STRONG DAYTIME HEATING FROM THE DELMARVA SWD COUPLED WITH THE
   PRESENCE OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
   TO LOWER 70S/ WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG.
   TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AS OF MID MORNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
   OF WV...DUE IN PART TO THE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   ABOVE-MENTIONED MCV TRANSLATING SEWD FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
   EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG
   FAVORED TERRAIN AND ALONG THE SWD-MOVING FRONT AND DEVELOPING LEE
   TROUGH WITH DEEPER-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR BEING
   ENHANCED BY THE APPROACH OF THE MCV. UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SEWD-MOVING
   LINE SEGMENTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING
   WINDS.

   FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...SEE MCD 1084.

   ...WRN/CNTRL SD THIS AFTERNOON...

   STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE
   REGION MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK FOR
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..MEAD/COOK/ARM #26.. 06/19/2014

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