Jun 23, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 23 19:45:34 UTC 2014 (20140623 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140623 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140623 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 156,193 10,171,378 Indianapolis, IN...Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Toledo, OH...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140623 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 24,120 3,949,719 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140623 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 155,665 10,107,106 Indianapolis, IN...Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Toledo, OH...Aurora, CO...
5 % 480,006 48,509,802 Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Austin, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140623 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 124,246 4,799,071 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
5 % 168,554 2,551,216 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Boulder, CO...San Angelo, TX...Cedar Park, TX...
   SPC AC 231945

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT MON JUN 23 2014

   VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   IL/INDIANA/MI/OH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND SPREAD
   EAST INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND WEST TEXAS. OTHER SEVERE
   STORMS POSING PRIMARILY A SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN
   LOWER MICHIGAN.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   PRIOR FORECAST REASONING REMAINS GENERALLY VALID...AS STORMS
   DEVELOP/EVOLVE LARGELY AS ANTICIPATED.  THE ONLY MAJOR CHANGE THIS
   FORECAST HAS BEEN REMOVAL OF THE SLIGHT RISK OVER E TX/THE ARKLATEX
   REGION...AS STORMS HAVE REMAINED SUB-SEVERE AS THEY NEAR THE ERN
   EDGE OF THE FORMER RISK AREA AND ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL
   SEEMS LIKELY WITH ANY SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS
   AREA.  OTHERWISE...STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHERE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS
   EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  MEANWHILE...CONVECTION
   REMAINS WIDESPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S.
   GENERALLY E OF THE MS VALLEY AND ALONG/W OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHERE
   ISOLATED SEVERE RISK PERSISTS.

   ..GOSS.. 06/23/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WEAK TO MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS TODAY WITH
   RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN
   PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. SMALL SCALE BANDS OF RELATIVELY STRONGER
   MID-LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   CONVECTIVELY INDUCED/SUSTAINED DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
   LARGER SCALE TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES. THESE
   DISTURBANCES...IN CONCERT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   BETTER ORGANIZED TSTMS DURING THE DIUNRAL HEATING CYCLE. 

   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
   HIGH PLAINS/FRONT RANGE...ALONG WITH DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW...WILL
   LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   NM/CO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING WEST THIS EVENING.

   ...CO/NM/WEST TX...
   WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 15-30KT SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
   THROUGH TODAY WITH LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINING QUITE
   LIMITED. THUS...PRIMARY FACTORS DRIVING ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT APPEAR TO BE OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND DIURNAL HEATING. AS
   SURFACE RIDGING SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENTLY
   MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD INDUCE TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT. WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER FORCING REMAIN
   WEAK...STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EAST INTO AN AXIS OF GREATER
   SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. POCKETS OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
   SRH SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NERN CO
   WHERE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER. MULTICELL STORMS WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT WHERE
   INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE STRONGER. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HIGH
   WINDS APPEAR MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

   ...ARKLATEX...
   A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM SERN OK INTO
   NERN TX AND THEN WWD ACROSS CNTRL TX LATE THIS MORNING. THE MCV
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS CENTERED OVER OK
   AND IS FCST TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MODEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THESE FEATURES WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
   AND WEAKLY CAPPED AIRMASS FROM TX COASTAL PLAIN ACROSS THE TXK AREA.
   DEEP MOISTURE AND POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT
   SCATTERED ROBUST MULTICELLULAR TSTMS...PERHAPS ORGANIZING INTO LINE
   SEGMENTS NEAR REMNANT OUTFLOW. A FEW TO SEVERAL WET DOWNBURST WIND
   EVENTS APPEAR POSSIBLE INTO EARLY EVENING.

   ...MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
   STRONG DESTABILIZATION WAS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD
   OF ANOTHER WEAK MCV. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MULTICELLULAR
   CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE POCKETS OF MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION WITH
   TIME. SIMILAR TO POINTS SOUTH...EXPECT A FEW TO SEVERAL TSTM WINDS
   EVENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

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