Jun 24, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 24 16:20:22 UTC 2014 (20140624 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140624 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140624 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 65,947 4,358,134 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140624 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 54,065 4,285,034 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140624 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 66,320 4,360,359 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
5 % 506,766 31,800,626 Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cleveland, OH...Toledo, OH...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140624 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 65,639 4,235,709 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
5 % 362,111 5,101,481 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Killeen, TX...Midland, TX...
   SPC AC 241620

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
   TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
   DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
   EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW
   MEXICO.  MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE
   SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  ANOTHER CORRIDOR
   WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
   OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS
   THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...A
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER
   GREAT LAKES WITH A DOWNSTREAM PERTURBATION PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS. UPSTREAM FROM THESE
   DEVELOPMENTS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PACIFIC NW
   TO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONGER IMPULSE WHICH
   WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST LATE.

   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE WRN
   EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ASSUME WARM FRONTAL PROPERTIES AS IT
   MOVES NWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE
   CYCLOGENESIS OVER SERN CO. 

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

   MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK
   PERTURBATION OVER WRN/CNTRL NEB INTO NRN KS WHICH WILL CONTINUE SEWD
   TODAY ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. FORCING FOR ASCENT
   AND AN ENHANCED BELT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A
   WARMING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. MLCAPE INCREASING TO
   1000-1500 J PER KG/ TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS. 

   ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO EVENING OVER ERN CO...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
   REGIME TO THE N OF THE SERN CO LEE CYCLONE. ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND
   SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF
   MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WITH THE
   PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS WIND AND
   HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON AN ISOLATED
   BASIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EVOLVING NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH WILL
   PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

   A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING...ONE
   IN A STATE OF DECAY OVER THE TX CONCHO VALLEY INTO EDWARDS
   PLATEAU...AND THE OTHER MORE INTENSE AND PROGRESSIVE OVER THE TX
   SOUTH PLAINS INTO LOW ROLLING PLAINS. LATEST RAP-BASED GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS THAT THE LATTER MCS IS MOVING SEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY
   AXIS SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT
   WHERE MLCAPE HAS ALREADY RISEN TO 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE TIME OF
   DAY AND RELATIVELY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
   WHETHER THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BECOME FIRMLY ROOTED WITHIN THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD. DUE TO THESE
   UNCERTAINTIES...ONLY LOW WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL BE
   MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST.

   AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT
   MAY PERSIST TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN MCS TRACKING FROM ERN
   CO/WRN KS INTO WRN PARTS OF TX/OK.  

   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

   IN ADDITION TO THE BROADER-SCALE TROUGHING PRESENT OVER THE
   REGION...RADAR MOSAIC DATA INDICATE AN MCV OVER SRN IL WHICH WILL
   PROGRESS NEWD TODAY ENHANCING LIFT WITHIN A MOIST AND AT LEAST
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WHEN COUPLED WITH A BELT OF 30-40 KT
   SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ATTENDING THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...THE SETUP MAY
   SUPPORT BRIEFLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 06/24/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z