Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
54,065
4,285,034
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
66,320
4,360,359
Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
SPC AC 241620
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CDT TUE JUN 24 2014
VALID 241630Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM
EXTREME SOUTHEAST WYOMING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO TO NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. ANOTHER CORRIDOR
WITH STRONG TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE.
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE CONUS
THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...A
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER
GREAT LAKES WITH A DOWNSTREAM PERTURBATION PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH/TN VALLEYS. UPSTREAM FROM THESE
DEVELOPMENTS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE PACIFIC NW
TO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION...AHEAD OF A STRONGER IMPULSE WHICH
WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NW COAST LATE.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE WRN
EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ASSUME WARM FRONTAL PROPERTIES AS IT
MOVES NWD THROUGH THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER SERN CO.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK
PERTURBATION OVER WRN/CNTRL NEB INTO NRN KS WHICH WILL CONTINUE SEWD
TODAY ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND AN ENHANCED BELT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH A
WARMING/DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. MLCAPE INCREASING TO
1000-1500 J PER KG/ TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL KS.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING OVER ERN CO...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE
REGIME TO THE N OF THE SERN CO LEE CYCLONE. ORGANIZED MULTICELL AND
SUPERCELL MORPHOLOGIES ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS WIND AND
HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN EVOLVING NOCTURNAL MCS WHICH WILL
PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ARE ONGOING AS OF MID MORNING...ONE
IN A STATE OF DECAY OVER THE TX CONCHO VALLEY INTO EDWARDS
PLATEAU...AND THE OTHER MORE INTENSE AND PROGRESSIVE OVER THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS INTO LOW ROLLING PLAINS. LATEST RAP-BASED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE LATTER MCS IS MOVING SEWD ALONG AN INSTABILITY
AXIS SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT
WHERE MLCAPE HAS ALREADY RISEN TO 2000-2500 J/KG. GIVEN THE TIME OF
DAY AND RELATIVELY WEAK TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL BECOME FIRMLY ROOTED WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SEWD. DUE TO THESE
UNCERTAINTIES...ONLY LOW WIND AND HAIL PROBABILITIES WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST.
AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION...AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT
MAY PERSIST TONIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN MCS TRACKING FROM ERN
CO/WRN KS INTO WRN PARTS OF TX/OK.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
IN ADDITION TO THE BROADER-SCALE TROUGHING PRESENT OVER THE
REGION...RADAR MOSAIC DATA INDICATE AN MCV OVER SRN IL WHICH WILL
PROGRESS NEWD TODAY ENHANCING LIFT WITHIN A MOIST AND AT LEAST
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WHEN COUPLED WITH A BELT OF 30-40 KT
SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ATTENDING THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...THE SETUP MAY
SUPPORT BRIEFLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 06/24/2014
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z