Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Kansas City, KS...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Louis, MO...
SPC AC 061245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT SUN JUL 06 2014
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND
A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
...SYNOPSIS...
AN INITIALLY QUASI-ZONAL POLAR BELT OF WESTERLIES SITUATED ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER WILL AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO THE PROGRESSION OF
A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THIS MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION WILL BE ATTENDED BY A BELT OF 40-50-KT
FLOW AT 500 MB WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE MID
MS VALLEY.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN ONTARIO WILL
DEEPEN WHILE DEVELOPING GENERALLY EWD TOWARD THE QUEBEC BORDER.
MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE NRN PLAINS
INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
MORE SLOWLY SWD BEFORE EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING FROM MN
TO THE U.P. OF MI WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED BY HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MANITOBA SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST THIS MORNING WITH A RISK FOR SMALL HAIL
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST MUCAPE SAMPLED BY THE 12Z MPX
SOUNDING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY...THINNING CLOUDS COUPLED WITH
BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD A STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PARTS
OF CNTRL WI TO NERN IA AS THE REGION IS GLANCED BY THE SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND A VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR...SUPERCELLS AND/OR INTENSE MULTICELLS APPEAR PROBABLE AS THE
INITIAL STORM MODE WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF TORNADOES. WITH TIME...MERGING STORM-SCALE OUTFLOWS MAY PROMOTE
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO SEWD-MOVING CLUSTERS WITH THE THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
IL...PERHAPS INTO NERN MO.
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF LOWER MI LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS SPREAD SEWD ACROSS LAKE MI. FARTHER TO THE
W ACROSS SERN NEB/NERN KS/NWRN MO...ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SWD-MOVING COMPLEX WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. FOR THESE LATTER TWO
AREAS...GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN SEVERE TSTM COVERAGE PRECLUDES
INTRODUCTION OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK AT THIS JUNCTURE.
..MEAD/COHEN.. 07/06/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z