SPC AC 160546

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2014

   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  IN
   ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A RISK FOR BRIEF
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAY OCCUR TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
   ENGLAND...AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST INTO NORTHERN
   FLORIDA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW IS NOW LIFTING NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND
   MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES IT WILL CONTINUE INTO WRN QUEBEC TODAY.  AN
   UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY...AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT
   WAVE TROUGH DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC
   COAST FROM NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SWWD ACROSS
   THE ERN CAROLINAS AND SRN GA.  THIS FRONT WILL THEN EXTEND WWD
   ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BEFORE LIFTING NWD ACROSS NWRN TX INTO A
   LOW OVER THE SERN CO/NERN NM BORDER REGION.

   ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   REMNANTS OF ONGOING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ERN WY...CO
   AND WRN KS MAY CONTINUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO
   CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY
   LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN KS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED TO PROGRESS SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND WRN/CENTRAL OK
   DURING THE DAY.  STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
   CONTINUE OVER THE ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...AND IN THE WAKE
   OF THE EARLIER STORMS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF DIABATIC
   HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITH LARGEST MLCAPE REACHING
   1500-2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SERN CO INTO WEST TX.

   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER EAST CENTRAL/SERN CO AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   IN ADVANCE OF THE SEWD MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COUPLES WITH
   LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW.  STRONG DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR WITH
   HEIGHT WILL PROMOTE ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES INCLUDING A FEW
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 
   STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO SEVERAL CLUSTERS OR SHORT
   LINE SEGMENTS DURING THE EVENING AS THEY PROGRESS SEWD WITH A
   CONTINUING THREAT OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
   AGAIN AFTER DARK OVER WEST TX AND WRN OK...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z AS STORMS MOVE INTO A
   LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ BUT WEAK
   INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE AOB 1000 J/KG.  STRONGER CELLS MAY BE
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.

   ...ATLANTIC COAST FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS TO NRN FL...
   A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
   DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THIS AREA...ESPECIALLY WITHIN AREAS WHERE
   BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER PROMOTE STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND
   DESTABILIZATION.  THERE IS SOME THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STRONGER
   CELLS TO PRODUCE DOWNBURST WINDS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM
   COVERAGE PRECLUDES INTRODUCTION OF A 15% WIND PROBABILITY/SLIGHT
   RISK AT THIS TIME.

   ..WEISS/MOSIER.. 07/16/2014

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