Green Bay, WI...Duluth, MN...Appleton, WI...Oshkosh, WI...Eau Claire, WI...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
34,424
1,539,426
Green Bay, WI...Appleton, WI...Eau Claire, WI...Wausau, WI...Stevens Point, WI...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
79,954
3,221,153
Green Bay, WI...Duluth, MN...Appleton, WI...Oshkosh, WI...Eau Claire, WI...
SPC AC 041248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT THU SEP 04 2014
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THOUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM E
CENTRAL MN ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN WI TO UPPER MI AND NW LOWER MI...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE FROM MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN
TODAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
FROM WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO IOWA AND THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHERE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
...UPPER MS VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...
A POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ERN MT/WRN ND THIS MORNING
WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER ND/NRN MN THROUGH TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE ND/SD/MN INTERSECTION WILL DEVELOP NEWD
INTO WRN ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING...AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES
EWD ACROSS MN/IA THIS AFTERNOON...AND WI TONIGHT. AN ONGOING
CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS IS BEING MAINTAINED BY MOISTURE INFLUX AND WAA
FROM THE S/SW JUST N OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THIS CONVECTION MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WHILE MOVING ACROSS NRN WI TO UPPER
MI...THOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY THE TIME THEY CROSS NRN
LAKE MI. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
INTERIM.
THE WARM FRONT...REINFORCED BY THE MORNING STORMS...WILL MOVE NWD
INTO NRN WI BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EWD INTO CENTRAL MN. THE DEGREE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY THE PRESENCE OF A WARM ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AND CAP...AS REPRESENTED BY 12Z 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
14 C AT ABR AND MPX. ANY WARM SECTOR CONVECTION THAT CAN INTERACT
WITH THE ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND STRONG BUOYANCY ALONG
THE WARM FRONT WILL POSE A CONDITIONAL TORNADO RISK...THOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN DEFERENCE TO THE CAP.
THE NAM CONVECTIVE SIGNAL MAY BE RELATED TO MIDLEVEL MOISTENING
TRIGGERING THE BMJ CONVECTIVE SCHEME IN AN OTHER WISE CAPPED
PROFILE. STILL...THERE WILL BE SOME MIDLEVEL COOLING FROM THE W
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
WEAKENING OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO ALLOW THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ANY SURFACE-BASED STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE SW EXTENT OF THE
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY BOTH THE CAP AND
WEAKER DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FROM WI TOWARD IA/NEB/KS.
..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 09/04/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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