SPC AC 100037

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0737 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2014

   VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
   PLAINS...MID MO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSOURI VALLEY EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
   PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.  A POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
   HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGER
   THUNDERSTORMS.

   ...MID MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY...
   THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB LOW IN WCNTRL KS WITH A COLD
   FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH NW KS AND SRN NEB. NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
   ONGOING NEAR THE FRONT IN SE NEB WITH ANOTHER BAND OF STORMS FROM
   NEAR THE KS-NEB STATELINE EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NW MO INTO SRN IA.
   THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF A
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND IS JUST AHEAD OF A 40 TO 50 KT 700 MB
   JET. THIS SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR
   MCS AFFECTING NRN MO...SRN IA INTO NWRN IL THIS EVENING INTO THE
   OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST SFC OBSERVATIONS AHEAD OF THE LINEAR
   MCS SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F WITH THE RAP ESTIMATING MLCAPE IN
   THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE DES MOINES WSR-88D
   VWPS SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 2 KM AGL WITH 50 KT
   OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG WITH THE VERY
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING.
   WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A
   TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH CELLS THAT CAN EXHIBIT ROTATION.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 998 MB LOW OVER WCNTRL KS WITH A
   COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS FAR SE CO AND NW KS. LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS A SW TO
   NE ORIENTED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZES THIS EVENING. SFC OBS
   ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW TEMPS IN THE MID 90S F WITH DEWPOINTS FROM
   THE UPPER 50S F IN SW KS TO THE MID 60S F IN CNTRL KS. AS A
   RESULT...MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BY THE RAP IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
   RANGE. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS SHOW 35 TO 40 KT OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
   THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AS STORM COVERAGE
   INCREASES AND A LINE ORGANIZES ACROSS SWRN AND CNTRL KS...DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS SHOULD BECOME THE GREATER THREAT LATER THIS EVENING.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...
   LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NERN NEB
   NEWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN WI. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY
   INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AS A BAND OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT OVER
   ERN PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. SFC
   DEWPOINTS ALONG THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH ARE GENERALLY IN THE 60 TO
   65 F RANGE WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED BY THE RAP IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG
   RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THIS EVENING
   SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL MAINLY DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY THAT IS IN
   PLACE.

   ..BROYLES.. 09/10/2014

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