Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
49,737
391,562
Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...North Platte, NE...Hays, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
51,026
401,760
Kearney, NE...Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...North Platte, NE...Hays, KS...
SPC AC 231621
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1121 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014
VALID 231630Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS COULD BE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE.
...SYNOPSIS...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE EWD PROGRESSION OF AN INTENSE TROUGH OVER THE NERN
PACIFIC...AND THE TRANSLATION OF A SHORTER-WAVELENGTH TROUGH FROM
THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. ELSEWHERE...A MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE CAROLINAS.
AT THE SURFACE...MID-MORNING MESOANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE OVER SWRN
SD WITH AN ASSOCIATED LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD TO A WEAKER LOW
OVER E-CNTRL CO BEFORE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE OVER THE OK/TX PNHDLS.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMNANT FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS STRETCHED FROM
CNTRL KS WWD TO THE ERN CO LOW. THE LEE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE
SLOWLY EWD TODAY WITH THE PRIMARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER WRN NEB. THE ABOVE-MENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
SHOULD EVENTUALLY WASH OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
...CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF OVERNIGHT NIGHT TSTMS COUPLED WITH
A RELATIVELY MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DESTABILIZING
AIR MASS TODAY AHEAD OF THE LEE TROUGH WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPE
APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. WHILE THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS TROUGH WILL SHIFT
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A WEAK VORTICITY LOBE OVER WY MAY PROGRESS
SEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING DEEP-LAYER
ASCENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM N-CNTRL
NEB INTO WRN KS.
A SUBSET OF THESE STORMS COULD EXHIBIT SOME MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION OWING TO THE OVERLAP OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH AROUND 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. AS SUCH...ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING
PRIOR TO THE STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
..MEAD/ROGERS.. 09/23/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
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