North Platte, NE...Sterling, CO...Lamar, CO...Tucumcari, NM...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
20,454
76,001
No Major Population Center in Risk Area
2 %
15,645
98,456
North Platte, NE...Sterling, CO...Lamar, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
42,871
147,358
Sterling, CO...Lamar, CO...Tucumcari, NM...
5 %
93,519
1,534,097
El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Clovis, NM...
SPC AC 300021
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014
VALID 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN CO...WRN NEB...WRN
KS...AND NERN NM...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH A HAIL AND WIND THREAT CURRENTLY EXTEND
FROM NERN CO SWD INTO NERN NM AHEAD OF AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
STORMS HAVE TAKEN ON A LINEAR MODE OVER MUCH OF ERN CO WHERE FORCING
FOR ASCENT IS STRONGEST...SUGGESTING MAINLY A WIND THREAT.
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR NEAR THIS LINE MAY STILL
YIELD AREAS OF ROTATION OR A BRIEF TORNADO BEFORE DISSIPATING
SOMEWHERE OVER W-CNTRL NEB/WRN KS ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THE GREATER
INSTABILITY.
TO THE S...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS PERSIST WITH A HAIL THREAT. THESE
CELLS TOO WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE A SMALL DISTANCE INTO TX. 00Z
SOUNDINGS FROM DDC AND AMA BOTH SHOW WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
ARE UNSUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1777.
..JEWELL.. 09/30/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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