SPC AC 021249

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND E TX NNE INTO
   THE OZARKS...MID-MS AND LWR OH VLYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
   ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE
   STORMS SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO LINES AND LIKELY WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE
   GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS
   POTENT SRN RCKYS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS E...AND LATER NE...ACROSS
   THE SRN PLNS AND LWR MS VLY AHEAD OF UPSTREAM JET STREAK NOW MOVING
   SE ACROSS ALBERTA. THE RCKYS IMPULSE SHOULD REACH CNTRL OK THIS EVE
   AND SRN IL BY 12Z FRI AS A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE
   PLNS/MS VLY.

   AT THE SFC...ELONGATED LOW OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLNS SHOULD TRACK
   SLOWLY E INTO MO AND WRN AR THIS EVE BEFORE DEEPENING AND
   ACCELERATING NNE TO LK MI EARLY FRI. COLD FRONT TRAILING SW FROM THE
   LOW WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
   PERIOD...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY TO PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WAA
   ZONE EXTENDING ENE INTO THE MID-MS/LWR OH VLYS.

   ...SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY INTO MID MS/LWR OH VLYS TODAY THROUGH EARLY
   FRI...

   VERY MOIST AIR /PW AROUND 1.75/ NOW OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN
   PLNS AND LWR MS VLY WILL SPREAD FARTHER NNE INTO THE
   MID-MS...TN...AND OH VLYS LATER TODAY AND TNGT AS DEEP SSW TO SWLY
   FLOW BACKS AND STRENGTHENS AND OF SRN RCKYS UPR IMPULSE.

   TSTMS NOW OVER ERN OK AND WRN/CNTRL MO ARE FORMING WITHIN
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
   LATER THIS MORNING AND MAY POSE A SPORADIC RISK OF LOCALLY DMGG
   WIND/HAIL GIVEN ACCESS TO RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
   40+ KT SWLY DEEP SHEAR. FARTHER W...STORMS IN CNTRL KS/FAR S CNTRL
   NEB ARE ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF A BAND OF ASCENT LOOSELY
   TIED TO THE RCKYS UPR TROUGH. THESE STORMS COULD POSE A SVR HAIL
   RISK EWD INTO NE KS AND PERHAPS NW MO /REF MCD 1793/...BEFORE THE
   ASCENT BAND MOVES FARTHER E BEYOND NARROW...ELEVATED EML PLUME NOW
   SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION.

   TOWARD MIDDAY AND THROUGH THE AFTN...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED
   TO FORM WITH SFC HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF ACCELERATING CNTRL/SRN
   PLNS COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND RICH
   LOW-LVL MOISTURE WITH 40-50 KT...UNIDIRECTIONAL...SWLY 700-500 MB
   FLOW AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL
   SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY MERGE INTO AN
   EXTENSIVE BROKEN SQLN FROM THE MO OZARKS SWWD INTO CNTRL TX. WHILE A
   COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR IN
   ERN OK AND TX...THE MAIN SVR THREAT SHOULD BECOME DMGG WIND AS SETUP
   WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   CONTINUE E/SE INTO THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS TNGT THROUGH EARLY
   FRI...WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
   TORNADO OR TWO.

   ..CORFIDI/COHEN.. 10/02/2014

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