Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 031229
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2014
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
FARTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NRN
PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES NWD INTO ONTARIO AND
OCCLUDES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS TODAY...AND THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...A
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS AL/NW GA THIS
MORNING...WITH A BAND OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER TO
THE N INTO THE OH VALLEY. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY LIMITED
OVER THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AREA...AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION TODAY ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WOULD
SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BUT BUOYANCY AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS QUICKLY NEWD
AND WEAKENS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE S
IS MORE ORGANIZED AND MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE DAY ACROSS GA/SC IN
RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE S/SW.
...GA/SC TODAY...
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN ALIGNED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL
LINE THIS MORNING...WHICH FAVORS MAINTENANCE OF A LARGELY LINEAR
MODE IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LOW
LEVELS. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CONVECTION BRINGS IT TO CENTRAL GA BY
MID-LATE MORNING...AND SE GA/SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT
2-3 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS. THE
DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
QUESTIONABLE...THUS THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED
TODAY WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND ACROSS GA/SC. RELATIVELY EARLY
ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION AND DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SWD
EXTENT BOTH SUPPORT KEEPING WIND PROBABILITIES LOW.
..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/03/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z