Oct 3, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 3 12:29:28 UTC 2014 (20141003 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141003 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141003 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141003 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141003 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 105,463 17,405,594 Charlotte, NC...Atlanta, GA...Greensboro, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Columbus, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141003 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 031229

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2014

   VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   ALABAMA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA...WHERE A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
   FARTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SERIES OF PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE OH VALLEY AND NRN
   PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL EVOLVE INTO A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES NWD INTO ONTARIO AND
   OCCLUDES.  A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN
   VALLEYS TODAY...AND THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE...A
   PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS AL/NW GA THIS
   MORNING...WITH A BAND OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER TO
   THE N INTO THE OH VALLEY.  MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY LIMITED
   OVER THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS AREA...AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN
   WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION TODAY ALONG THE
   SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT.  A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WOULD
   SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL DAMAGING WIND RISK WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...BUT BUOYANCY AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR
   ASCENT WILL BE WEAK AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS QUICKLY NEWD
   AND WEAKENS BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY.  THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE S
   IS MORE ORGANIZED AND MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE DAY ACROSS GA/SC IN
   RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   FROM THE S/SW.

   ...GA/SC TODAY...
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS REMAIN ALIGNED ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL
   LINE THIS MORNING...WHICH FAVORS MAINTENANCE OF A LARGELY LINEAR
   MODE IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT IN THE LOW
   LEVELS.  EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CONVECTION BRINGS IT TO CENTRAL GA BY
   MID-LATE MORNING...AND SE GA/SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT
   2-3 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z NSSL WRF AND RECENT HRRR RUNS.  THE
   DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
   QUESTIONABLE...THUS THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED
   TODAY WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND ACROSS GA/SC.  RELATIVELY EARLY
   ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION AND DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH SWD
   EXTENT BOTH SUPPORT KEEPING WIND PROBABILITIES LOW.

   ..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/03/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z