SPC AC 081256

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2014

   VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   CORRECTED TO GROUP TSTM AREA IN NEW ENGLAND

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME
   SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON INTO MAINE. 
   OTHER ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKANSAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY THIS
   AFTERNOON.  A SEPARATE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
   ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE ISOLATED
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A TRANSITION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW IS
   UNDERWAY AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   EJECTS QUICKLY NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING.  IN THE WAKE OF
   THE NEW ENGLAND WAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS
   VA/CAROLINAS TODAY...WHILE FARTHER TO THE WNW THE BOUNDARY WILL
   REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.  THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
   FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT FROM OK TO KS. 
   OTHERWISE...A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD FROM NRN
   BAJA TO AZ ALONG WITH REMNANT MOISTURE PLUME FROM NOW-DEFUNCT TC
   SIMON.

   ...NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
   NEWD/EWD ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND AND MAINE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH
   ABOUT 15Z ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND...AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
   DOWN EAST MAINE IN THE REMAINING WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.

   ...MID SOUTH TO SC TODAY...
   FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS N GA THIS MORNING IS MOVING SEWD AND WILL
   LIKELY WEAKEN THIS MORNING.  IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER OR NOT
   ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM LATER TODAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR ANY
   LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THOUGH THERE WOULD BE A CONDITIONAL
   RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES ALONG
   THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW.  FARTHER W...THE
   MORNING CONVECTION IN NW AR WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
   DIMINISHES BY MID-LATE MORNING.  THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
   WILL BE WEAK AT BEST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THIS
   AFTERNOON...MODERATE BUOYANCY AND SRN EDGE OF THE MODEST DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND.

   ...SE NEB/NE KS/NRN AND WRN MO TONIGHT...
   A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ.  THE WAA ZONE WILL COINCIDE
   WITH THE NE EDGE OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY
   MODERATE BUOYANCY ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE /MUCAPE OF 1500-2000
   J PER KG/.  THUS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM TONIGHT
   FROM NE KS/SE NEB INTO NRN MO BY 03-06Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH 12Z
   WHILE SPREADING SEWD.  THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
   BUOYANCY...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM...AND EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR AOA 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL.  HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE/DESTRUCTIVE
   INTERFERENCE COULD TEND TO REDUCE STORM SEVERITY...AND THERE ARE
   STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY.  GIVEN
   THESE CONCERNS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW HAIL PROBABILITIES...BUT THIS
   AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN THE HAIL RISK
   IN LATER UPDATES.

   ..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/08/2014

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