Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
96,989
9,641,936
Atlanta, GA...Birmingham, AL...Little Rock, AR...Columbia, SC...Macon, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
75,705
6,209,615
Memphis, TN...Kansas City, MO...Little Rock, AR...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
SPC AC 081256
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT WED OCT 08 2014
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED TO GROUP TSTM AREA IN NEW ENGLAND
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND...AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON INTO MAINE.
OTHER ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKANSAS TO SOUTH CAROLINA...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON. A SEPARATE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
ACROSS NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...WHERE ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
...SYNOPSIS...
A TRANSITION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
EJECTS QUICKLY NEWD OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF
THE NEW ENGLAND WAVE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS
VA/CAROLINAS TODAY...WHILE FARTHER TO THE WNW THE BOUNDARY WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THE WRN EXTENT OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD AS A WARM FRONT FROM OK TO KS.
OTHERWISE...A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD FROM NRN
BAJA TO AZ ALONG WITH REMNANT MOISTURE PLUME FROM NOW-DEFUNCT TC
SIMON.
...NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NEWD/EWD ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND AND MAINE BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS THROUGH
ABOUT 15Z ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND...AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE IN THE REMAINING WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
...MID SOUTH TO SC TODAY...
FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS N GA THIS MORNING IS MOVING SEWD AND WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN THIS MORNING. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER OR NOT
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM LATER TODAY ALONG THE COLD FRONT OR ANY
LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THOUGH THERE WOULD BE A CONDITIONAL
RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES ALONG
THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MIDLEVEL WLY FLOW. FARTHER W...THE
MORNING CONVECTION IN NW AR WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
DIMINISHES BY MID-LATE MORNING. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BE WEAK AT BEST ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON...MODERATE BUOYANCY AND SRN EDGE OF THE MODEST DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL/MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL AND WIND.
...SE NEB/NE KS/NRN AND WRN MO TONIGHT...
A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-35 KT SWLY LLJ. THE WAA ZONE WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE NE EDGE OF THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY
MODERATE BUOYANCY ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE /MUCAPE OF 1500-2000
J PER KG/. THUS...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FORM TONIGHT
FROM NE KS/SE NEB INTO NRN MO BY 03-06Z...AND PERSIST THROUGH 12Z
WHILE SPREADING SEWD. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
BUOYANCY...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 C/KM...AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR AOA 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE/DESTRUCTIVE
INTERFERENCE COULD TEND TO REDUCE STORM SEVERITY...AND THERE ARE
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY. GIVEN
THESE CONCERNS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW HAIL PROBABILITIES...BUT THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN THE HAIL RISK
IN LATER UPDATES.
..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 10/08/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z