Oct 17, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 17 00:38:56 UTC 2014 (20141017 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141017 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141017 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141017 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141017 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141017 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 170038

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

   VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM EDT
   OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES APPEAR MINIMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
   TONIGHT. QUITE ISOLATED STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS
   WITHIN THE COLD-CORE OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
   AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS N TOWARDS THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER...WARMING
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH FURTHER SURFACE COOLING WILL
   CURTAIL THUNDER RISK OVERNIGHT.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/17/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z