Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 221946
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FAR SOUTHERN
TEXAS.
...DISCUSSION...
ONLY MODEST ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THIS
UPDATE.
..DIAL.. 10/22/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE
JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TODAY...AND THE RISK FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT OVER SE NEW ENGLAND.
HERE...LOW-LEVEL WAA/ASCENT AND WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR 850 MB
WILL SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGER BUOYANCY
AND ANY ASSOCIATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE.
ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE WRN
DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ALOFT PRECEDING THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. FARTHER S IN THE PLAINS...A WEAK SWD EXTENSION OF THE NRN
PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY.
A MOISTURE PLUME IN ADVANCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE WILL SUPPORT A RISK
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM W TX NNEWD INTO KS. ISOLATED
SURFACE-BASED STORMS COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
DRIFTING INTO W/NW KS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME...AND WILL BE BEHIND THE WEAK WAVE
ALOFT BY MID AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM
INITIATION AND THE VERY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
THERMODYNAMIC/VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY
HAIL PROBABILITIES.
OTHERWISE...SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PAC NW COAST AS THE NEXT STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS
...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS S FL AND S TX.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
| 
)
