Nov 3, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 3 00:54:09 UTC 2014 (20141103 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141103 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141103 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141103 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141103 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141103 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 030054

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0654 PM CST SUN NOV 02 2014

   VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AS OF MID-EVENING FROM
   SERN AZ/SWRN NM NEWD INTO FAR WRN KS. THIS ACTIVITY IS COLLOCATED
   WITH A BAND OF ASCENT PRECEDING A MIDLEVEL VORT LOBE OVER UT/NRN AZ
   AT THE SRN EXTENT OF A WRN-CONUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AS THESE FEATURES
   SHIFT EWD...AND A LLJ DEVELOPS STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS...STORMS
   WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS.
   HOWEVER...SVR STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS ALREADY MEAGER BUOYANCY
   DECREASES WITH NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

   ..COHEN/JEWELL.. 11/03/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z