Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 111249
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2014
VALID 111300Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST AND FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO LOWER MICHIGAN
TODAY...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
...SYNOPSIS...
A SHALLOW...EARLY-SEASON ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS SURGING SEWD ACROSS
TX/LA AND WILL REACH THE NW GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING WITH RETURN FLOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT FROM S TX TO SW LA...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NOW RANGE
FROM 64-70 F. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WARM PROFILES PERSIST ALOFT
BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BRO/LCH...WITH LFC/S AOA 700 MB AND
MARGINAL BUOYANCY. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHALLOW
GIVEN THE SHALLOW SLOPE OF THE FRONTAL SURFACE...SO IT IS NOT CLEAR
THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH CONDITIONING OF THE LARGER-SCALE ENVIRONMENT
TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD/DEEP CONVECTION. THE MORE PROBABLE AREA
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE WHERE THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF
RICHEST MOISTURE INTERSECTS THE FRONT ACROSS DEEP S TX THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT THE PROSPECTS FOR LIGHTNING ARE MARGINAL AT
BEST.
OTHERWISE...SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ROOTED IN THE MIDLEVELS /IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH/ WILL
PROGRESS NEWD FROM NRN IL TO LOWER MI TODAY. VERY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING FLASHES HAVE BEEN DETECTED RECENTLY ACROSS W CENTRAL
IL...THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNLIKELY TO BECOME ANY MORE FAVORABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME...SO WILL NOT ADD AN OUTLOOK AREA IN
THIS UPDATE.
..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 11/11/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z
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