Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 081957
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST MON DEC 08 2014
VALID 082000Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT; OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
...NORTHEAST NC TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...
TIME-LAPSE OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF SC/NC AT APPROXIMATELY 32.5 N/71.7 W...WITH
THIS LOW MOVING WWD AS FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS
OUTLOOK ISSUANCE...WITH A CONTINUED LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED
LIGHTNING LATER TONIGHT.
..PETERS.. 12/08/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM CST MON DEC 08 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE WAVE
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MOVE SEWD THROUGH A LARGER UPPER
TROUGH COVERING THE ERN CONUS. AHEAD OF THE THIS SHORTWAVE...A
WEAKER SRN-STREAM LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST...BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS IT
MOVES QUICKLY NEWD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHORTWAVES AND THE OVERALL EWD PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OVER
THE ERN CONUS...WITH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD AND INTO DAY 2. AS A RESULT...THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY 300 MILES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN WHILE TRANSITIONING NWWD. BY 12Z/TUE...CENTER OF THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROXIMATELY 100 MILES E OF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...STRONG WAA WILL PROMOTE
ELEVATED CONVECTION AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING FROM THE FAR NE NC COAST
NWD THROUGH THE DELMARVA...PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z/TUE.
ELSEWHERE...STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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