Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
SPC AC 091944
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 PM CST TUE DEC 09 2014
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR OVER THE CAPE COD REGION LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED STRIKES ALSO MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING OVER EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
...20Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED.
..PETERS.. 12/09/2014
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE DEC 09 2014/
...SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL
GULF COAST STATES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE PARENT ERN U.S.
LONG-WAVE TROUGH AND CONTRIBUTE TO EVENTUAL FORMATION OF A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. UPSTREAM FROM THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A SRN
STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE THROUGH NWRN MEXICO AND
AZ/NM WHILE FARTHER TO THE NW AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NW COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLONE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL UNDERGO
SLIGHT DEEPENING TODAY WHILE DRIFTING NWD INTO SRN NEW
ENGLAND...PRIOR TO BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...A
DRY CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIR MASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NATION.
...SERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CURRENT LIGHTNING NETWORK DATA INDICATE A BAND OF TSTMS
APPROXIMATELY 170 NM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITHIN THE
WARM-CONVEYOR AIR STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM. THIS REGIME WILL DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ELEVATED TSTMS TO AFFECT SERN NEW ENGLAND LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
...SRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...
A POCKET OF COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK INSTABILITY LATER TODAY. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS IMPULSE AND HEATING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY COMBINE WITH
THIS INSTABILITY TO FOSTER ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE PEAK OF THE
DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
...PACIFIC NW...
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY DEEPER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS MOVING ONSHORE. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE SUSTAINED TSTM THREAT IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A
GENERAL TSTM AREA.
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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