Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 150058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO
NORTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT
FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO NORTHEAST TEXAS.
...SYNOPSIS...
LATEST MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPACT...CLOSED LOW
ADVANCING NEWD/ENEWD ACROSS SRN KS. THE ATTENDANT WARM CONVEYOR AND
RELATED MOIST/ASCENT PLUME COIL AROUND THE LOW FROM ERN OK/TX INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS...WITH A PROMINENT DRY SLOT EDGING NNEWD ACROSS KS
AND OK. A SFC DRYLINE ATTENDANT TO THE LOW IS ADVANCING EWD...ARCING
FROM N-CNTRL TX W OF THE DFW METROPLEX TO CNTRL OK W OF THE OKC AREA
AND THEN NNWWD INTO PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL KS. THE DRYLINE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE NIGHT IN CONCERT WITH THE
MOTION OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW.
...PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
THE 00Z OUN/FWD RAOBS SAMPLE THE NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODEST BUOYANCY
E OF THE DRYLINE. AS THE DRYLINE CONTINUES ITS EWD PROGRESSION...IT
WILL PINCH OFF THE BUOYANCY CORRIDOR. THE ERN EXTENT OF THIS
CORRIDOR CONTINUES TO BE TRUNCATED BY BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E
DEFICITS RELATED TO ONGOING CONVECTION WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED
WARM CONVEYOR. DESPITE DCVA/ADIABATIC COOLING PRECEDING THE
MIGRATORY CYCLONE...THE NARROWING NATURE OF THE BUOYANT SECTOR
COUPLED WITH NOCTURNAL DIABATIC COOLING WILL LIKELY PROVE
DETRIMENTAL FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF SFC-BASED CONVECTION.
DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MATURED ALONG THE DRYLINE
INVOF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT PEAK HEATING ARE SPREADING NNEWD ACROSS
OK...WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY IN THE BENT-BACK MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS
S-CNTRL KS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND WEAKENING. THIS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH
CONGEALING CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM NERN TX TO ERN OK TO SERN KS...MAY
POSE AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SVR RISK TONIGHT...AS AREA VWPS SAMPLE
STRONG TROPOSPHERIC FLOW/LONG HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...THE TENDENCY FOR
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WILL
PRECLUDE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/METEOROLOGICAL
DETAILS...PLEASE REFERENCE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1977.
..COHEN.. 12/15/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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