Dec 19, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 19 00:35:33 UTC 2014 (20141219 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141219 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141219 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141219 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141219 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141219 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 190035

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0635 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

   VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
   ACROSS MAINLY THE SRN HALF OF TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA.  OTHER ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WASHINGTON/OREGON COAST.

   ...TX...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A LOWER-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING EWD ALONG THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER AND THIS FEATURE IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE TO W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  A GRADUAL
   INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF SERN AND CNTRL TX AS LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING
   DISTURBANCE IS COMPLIMENTED BY A STATIONARY FRONT INTERACTING WITH
   MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   NONETHELESS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE RELEGATED N OF
   THE FRONT AND REMAIN WEAK.  HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
   COULD POSE A SMALL HAIL RISK...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS MARGINAL
   ENOUGH PRECLUDING A LOW SEVERE CATEGORICAL HIGHLIGHT.

   ..SMITH.. 12/19/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z