Dec 30, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Dec 30 12:25:15 UTC 2014 (20141230 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141230 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141230 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141230 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141230 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141230 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 301225

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0625 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2014

   VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES FOR
   TODAY AND TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...

   A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GREAT BASIN
   WILL FRACTURE WITH THE SRN PORTION EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
   THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO LOWER CO VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE
   HIGHER-LATITUDE SEGMENT OF THE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH
   ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES...AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK
   DIGGING SSEWD THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. ELSEWHERE...A
   BELT OF STRONG WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO OFF
   THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. 

   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SWD THROUGH THE FL
   PENINSULA WHILE AN EXPANSIVE AND STRONG ANTICYCLONE BUILDS SWD ALONG
   THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

   WHILE THE AIR MASS REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST ACROSS FL...WEAK LAPSE
   RATES WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT DEPTH AND LIGHTNING POTENTIAL WITH ANY
   CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FORMING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
   ELSEWHERE...A DRY...STABLE AIR MASS WILL PRECLUDE TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

   ..MEAD.. 12/30/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z