Jan 1, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 1 17:25:51 UTC 2014 (20140101 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140101 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140101 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140101 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 011723

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CST WED JAN 01 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC
   COAST DURING THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THE PRIMARY LOW ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN WITH EWD PROGRESSION OUT OF THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A TRAILING COLD
   FRONT WILL EXTEND TO THE GULF COAST...REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST
   LATE THU EVENING...AND THE SRN FL PENINSULA BY EARLY FRI MORNING. IN
   ITS WAKE...A CP AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS.


   ...PENINSULAR FL...
   A SHALLOW WARM SECTOR WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS PENINSULAR
   FL IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   UPPER TROUGH. A PRE-FRONTAL SFC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE ESTABLISHED
   ACROSS NRN FL DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...AND COULD
   PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STRONG
   WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IF ENOUGH
   HEATING CAN OCCUR...GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG LOW-/MIDLEVEL WIND
   FIELDS...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL /E.G. LESS THAN 1000
   J/KG/. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH THE
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BY EVENING AND QUICKLY PROGRESS E/SEWD ACROSS THE
   FL PENINSULA...WITH WEAKENING INSTABILITY/MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT WITH
   SWD EXTENT AND THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING LEADING TO A REDUCED TSTM
   THREAT.

   ..ROGERS.. 01/01/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z