Jan 4, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 4 06:53:44 UTC 2014 (20140104 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140104 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140104 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140104 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 040651

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CST SAT JAN 04 2014

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY IN CONCERT WITH A
   DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHENING POLAR JET AND AN EVOLVING COLD/DEEP
   VORTEX OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. THIS
   PATTERN WILL RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO TSTM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
   CONUS...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
   SEABOARD/NEARBY ATLANTIC ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.

   ...COASTAL CAROLINAS/EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA...
   AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...IT APPEARS THAT A
   RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS A PART OF THE
   COASTAL CAROLINAS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM
   SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. THAT SAID...FORCING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
   SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER ALSO LIKELY LIMITING UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTH. THINKING
   REMAINS THAT THE PRIMARY TSTM POTENTIAL BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE IN THE
   ATLANTIC WATERS. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...LITTLE/IF ANY SEVERE
   POTENTIAL IS ANTICIPATED IN SPITE OF A CONSIDERABLY STRENGTHENING
   WIND FIELD.

   ...NORTHEAST STATES...
   STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT TIED TO THE AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM
   TROUGH/WARM ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BY SUNDAY
   NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. WHILE A RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE NEAR-SURFACE
   LAYER WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT
   STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
   MIGHT ALLOW FOR A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

   ..GUYER.. 01/04/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z