Jan 4, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jan 4 16:07:45 UTC 2014 (20140104 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140104 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140104 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140104 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 041604

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1004 AM CST SAT JAN 04 2014

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL STRETCH FROM THE HIGH
   PLAINS INTO THE ERN STATES WITH UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN FROM THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY SUN MORNING NEWD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY MON
   MORNING...WITH COLD AIR SPREADING EWD BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
   AND ENVELOPING ALL BUT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. HERE...SLY FLOW
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE NWD...WITH SOME
   CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND
   PERHAPS AS FAR NW AS ERN PA.

   ...ERN CAROLINAS AND COASTAL ERN FL...
   THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
   REMAIN OVER THE WATER...BUT A BATCH OF RAIN AND STORMS IS EXPECTED
   TO TRANSLATE NWD WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...AND MAY AFFECT THE
   COASTAL CAROLINAS DURING THE DAY. FARTHER S INTO COASTAL
   FLORIDA...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED OR PERHAPS NON-EXISTENT
   DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY EXIST EARLY.

   ...ERN VA INTO MD/DE...NJ..ERN PA...
   STRONGLY VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS DUE TO WARM ADVECTION ATOP A STABLE
   SURFACE AIR MASS AS WELL AS COOLING ALOFT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
   ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION POTENTIAL AFTER 00Z. WEAK ELEVATED
   INSTABILITY INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW EMBEDDED
   LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ..JEWELL.. 01/04/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z