Jan 7, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 7 07:02:45 UTC 2014 (20140107 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140107 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140107 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140107 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 070659

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CST TUE JAN 07 2014

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE/LOW-AMPLITUDE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE
   CONUS ON WEDNESDAY WITH MULTIPLE SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS/SPEED MAXIMA
   CROSSING THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. VIRTUALLY NIL TSTM
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF
   COLD/CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES...ALTHOUGH A NON-ZERO TSTM POTENTIAL
   MAY EXIST AS BELOW.

   ...EAST TX/ARKLATEX...
   SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND INCREASING
   WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
   SOMEWHAT STEEPEN IN TANDEM WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX
   CROSSING THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHERN PLAINS...IT APPEARS THAT
   ELEVATED BUOYANCY /BASED ABOVE 900 MB/ WILL BE TOO WEAK/SHALLOW FOR
   A CONSEQUENTIAL TSTM RISK. WHILE A FEW ISOLATED/EMBEDDED TSTMS
   CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TSTM PROBABILITIES
   ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 PERCENT.

   ...FAR SOUTH FL...
   A FEW TSTMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE WATERS OFF THE SOUTH
   FL COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT IN VICINITY OF A
   NORTHWARD-SHIFTING MARITIME FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

   ..GUYER.. 01/07/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z