Jan 8, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 8 06:27:44 UTC 2014 (20140108 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140108 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140108 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140108 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 080625

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1225 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY DEVELOPING SPLIT
   FLOW OVER THE WESTERN STATES THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH DUAL
   AMPLIFYING TROUGHS...ONE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE OTHER
   OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA/FAR NORTHERN MEXICO. AIDED BY SOUTHERN
   HIGH PLAINS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...AIR MASS
   MODIFICATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WITH UPPER
   50S/LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE COMMON
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF TX.

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   ISOLATED TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY LATE THURSDAY
   NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY FOR PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL TX
   INTO SOUTHERN OK. INFLUENCES OF THE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST STATES
   UPPER TROUGH AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION/ELEVATED MOISTENING WILL
   LIKELY LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE A
   WEAK BUT SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY MAY EXIST FOR ISOLATED
   TSTMS. SEVERE TSTMS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
   MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

   ...SOUTH FL VICINITY...
   UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK RIDGING...AIR MASS MOISTENING WILL
   CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING MARITIME
   BOUNDARY...WITH UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
   COMMON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FL. WHILE THE POTENTIAL OF
   LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED INLAND...SUFFICIENT
   LIFT/INSTABILITY MAY COINCIDE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE OFFSHORE
   WATERS OF SOUTH FL AND/OR IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.

   ..GUYER.. 01/08/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z