Jan 8, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 8 17:27:43 UTC 2014 (20140108 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140108 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140108 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140108 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 081724

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1124 AM CST WED JAN 08 2014

   VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING DAY 1 IS
   EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND REMAIN
   PROGRESSIVE.  THIS TRANSITION WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY DEVELOPING
   SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN STATES...AND TWO AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGHS...ONE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EXTENDING INTO NRN MEXICO
   AND THE SECOND OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT
   CANADIAN PROVINCES.  SRN HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS/LEE TROUGH
   DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION OVER THE SRN PLAINS
   WITH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
   MORNING AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS. 

   ...PART OF THE TX COAST TO THE ARKLATEX...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
   REGION PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER OK/N
   TX AT 09/12Z...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN DE-AMPLIFYING AS IT MOVES ENE
   TOWARD THE OH VALLEY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUFFICIENT AIR
   MASS MODIFICATION /LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND WAA BENEATH WEAK
   MIDLEVEL COOLING ATTENDANT TO THE SRN PLAINS TROUGH/ WILL HAVE
   OCCURRED LEADING INTO THE START OF DAY 2 FOR A CATEGORICAL TSTM
   OUTLOOK AREA.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS /SOME ELEVATED AND A
   FEW SURFACE BASED/ SHOULD OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING.  THIS THREAT WILL
   THEN DECREASE GREATLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MIDLEVEL HEIGHT
   RISES/WARMING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES RESULT IN A MORE HOSTILE
   ENVIRONMENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND CHARGE SEPARATION.

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE
   PRONOUNCED DURING THE LATTER HALF OF DAY 2 AS SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS
   STRENGTHEN FROM DEEP S TX THROUGH OK AND SRN KS IN RESPONSE TO
   HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE AMPLIFYING FOUR CORNERS/NRN MEXICO TROUGH.  PW
   VALUES SHOULD INCREASE TO AOA 1 INCH OVER N TX AND SRN OK LATE THU
   EVENING TO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING
   ASCENT /LOW LEVEL WAA ALONG THE LLJ AND FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF
   THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ELEVATED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY BETWEEN 10/06-12Z ACROSS PARTS OF WEST
   CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO SRN OK.

   ...SOUTH FL VICINITY...
   WEAK RIDGING AND A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE
   PRESENT ACROSS THIS REGION DURING DAY 2...WHILE AIR MASS MOISTENING
   CONTINUES ALONG/SOUTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING MARITIME
   BOUNDARY.  THE POTENTIAL OF LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION SHOULD
   TEND TO BE LIMITED INLAND...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT
   INCREASE IN POTENTIAL ACROSS S FL AND THIS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH AN
   EXPANSION IN THE GENERAL TSTM AREA.  MEANWHILE...SOME LIFT/
   INSTABILITY MAY COINCIDE FOR ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
   OF SOUTH FL AND/OR IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC.

   ..PETERS.. 01/08/2014

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