Jan 9, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 9 07:03:44 UTC 2014 (20140109 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140109 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140109 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140109 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 090700

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CST THU JAN 09 2014

   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VERY PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL
   PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...AN UPPER
   TROUGH/STRENGTHENING POLAR JET ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE A GENERAL
   EASTWARD TRANSITION FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO MO RIVER
   VALLEY/ARKLATEX BY EARLY SATURDAY. PRIMARY ASSOCIATED SURFACE
   CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE MO VALLEY/UPPER
   MIDWEST...WITH A COLD FRONT ACCELERATING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

   ...NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX FRI AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
   AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...AMPLE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT/MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO PREVALENT
   SHOWERS/EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/OZARKS FRIDAY
   MORNING. ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS EARLY DAY ACTIVITY...THE AIR
   MASS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
   ACROSS MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL TX.

   ALTHOUGH THE EXACT EXTENSIVENESS/IMPACTS OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION ARE
   UNCERTAIN...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
   MODESTLY DESTABILIZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE MAY BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX...WITH SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF
   NEAR-SURFACE BASED TSTMS POSSIBLE. CONTINGENT UPON THIS...MORE THAN
   SUFFICIENT FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST A FEW
   STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS. SUCH A RISK COULD INCLUDE DAMAGING
   WINDS...A BRIEF TORNADO...AND SEVERE HAIL PENDING A SUFFICIENTLY
   FAVORABLE /NON-LINEAR/ CONVECTIVE MODE. REGARDLESS...GIVEN
   INSTABILITY UNCERTAINTIES AND THE MODEST MAGNITUDE THEREOF...THE
   OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   MARGINAL/ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL TX.

   ...LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES FRI NIGHT...
   INLAND CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY ABATE
   THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH AN INLAND-DEVELOPING WARM SECTOR. BUT GIVEN CURRENT
   OBSERVATIONAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...UNCERTAINTY
   PERSISTS RELATED TO THE EXACT DEGREE/QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND
   TIMING THEREOF. ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING INLAND PRECIPITATION
   FRIDAY NIGHT...THIS HAS ASSOCIATED RAMIFICATIONS ON AVAILABLE
   INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD REMAIN MODEST REGARDLESS /500 J PER KG
   MLCAPE OR LESS/ AND RELEGATED TO NEAR-COASTAL AREAS /WITHIN 75-100
   MILES OF THE GULF OF MEXICO/. WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTENING DOES OCCUR
   FRIDAY NIGHT /ROUGHLY AT LEAST 64F DEWPOINTS/ AHEAD OF THE
   APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME NEAR-SURFACE
   BASED TSTMS IN THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS OF THE REGION.
   ACCORDINGLY...A CONDITIONAL/ISOLATED POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO RISK FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
   GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTHENING AND MAGNITUDE OF DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL SRH.

   ..GUYER.. 01/09/2014

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